CGY beat MIN 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (MIN 2.3, CGY 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mikael Backlund scored at 2:25 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Reto Berra allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:36 | CGY | TJ Galiardi from Kevin Westgarth, Chris Butler | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 14:03 | MIN | Matt CookeSH unassisted | 1–1 | 24% → 46% |
| P2 18:24 | CGY | Dennis Wideman from Chris Butler, TJ Galiardi | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 1:00 | CGY | Mikael BacklundSH from Mark Giordano, Lee Stempniak | 1–3 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 10:31 | MIN | Dany HeatleyPP from Mikael Granlund, Zach Parise | 2–3 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 15:55 | MIN | Keith Ballard from Kyle Brodziak, Dany Heatley | 3–3 | 10% → 49% |
| OT 2:25 | CGY | Mikael Backlund from Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cooke L | 15:45 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.16 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dany Heatley L | 15:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.07 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Keith Ballard D | 20:55 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.24 | +0.67 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Stoner D | 11:19 | +0.29 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 25:35 | +0.24 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Prosser D | 15:45 | +0.11 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 10:18 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 12:47 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Brodziak C | 13:28 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.10 | |
| Justin Fontaine R | 10:54 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 29:06 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Rupp L | 4:05 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 15:10 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 19:07 | −0.25 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Pominville R | 19:25 | −0.34 | −0.32 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 20:49 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 20:06 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.32 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.02 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 19:20 | −0.55 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.33 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 62:13 | −1.09 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Backlund C | 21:58 | 2 | +1.62 | +0.41 | +1.28 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| TJ Galiardi L | 9:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.03 | +0.87 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Dennis Wideman D | 21:56 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.12 | +0.66 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 28:50 | 2 | +0.15 | +0.23 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 28:12 | +0.14 | +0.39 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian McGrattan R | 3:11 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Breen D | 4:30 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Stajan C | 20:29 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 15:10 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.17 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Jiri Hudler R | 19:06 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Lee Stempniak R | 18:14 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.17 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Ladislav Smid D | 21:30 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Westgarth R | 3:26 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Cammalleri L | 19:20 | −0.26 | −0.11 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Jones R | 16:03 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Butler D | 20:05 | 2 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Colborne C | 11:26 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Lance Bouma L | 17:58 | −0.43 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karri Ramo G | 17:32 | +0.53 |
| Reto Berra G | 44:53 | −1.45 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.