CBJ beat BUF 4–3 in a shootout. CBJ also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Tyler Myers scored on the power play at 19:35 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 4% to 51%. Sergei Bobrovsky saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:59 | BUF | Tyler Myers from Matt Moulson, Tyler Ennis | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:19 | CBJ | David Savard from Derek MacKenzie, Mark Letestu | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 6:47 | BUF | Drew Stafford from Tyler Ennis | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:44 | CBJ | Matt Calvert from Nikita Nikitin, Brandon Dubinsky | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 11:21 | CBJ | Brandon DubinskyPP from Cam Atkinson, James Wisniewski | 3–2 | 48% → 69% |
| P3 19:35 | BUF | Tyler MyersPP from Cody Hodgson, Christian Ehrhoff | 3–3 | 4% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Calvert L | 14:46 | 1 | +1.16 | +0.33 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 17:57 | +0.88 | +0.13 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +1.03 | ||
| David Savard D | 21:38 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.08 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James Wisniewski D | 20:26 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.43 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Dubinsky C | 19:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.37 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 |
| Jack Johnson D | 28:16 | +0.22 | +0.33 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Murray D | 19:06 | +0.10 | +0.17 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Nikitin D | 19:20 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek MacKenzie C | 11:31 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Corey Tropp R | 9:32 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Artem Anisimov C | 17:04 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | ||
| R.J. Umberger C | 16:32 | −0.14 | +0.22 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 19:00 | −0.16 | +0.11 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 12:40 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dalton Prout D | 21:26 | −0.23 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Horton R | 15:30 | −0.24 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Letestu C | 16:01 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.37 | |
| Cam Atkinson R | 13:50 | 1 | −0.52 | +0.39 | −0.59 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.31 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 65:00 | +1.39 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Myers D | 22:16 | 2 | +1.70 | +0.01 | +1.67 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Stafford R | 20:01 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.04 | +0.54 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 17:56 | +0.04 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Scott L | 4:00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Leino L | 13:36 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:37 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jamie McBain D | 22:28 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Weber D | 17:55 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:26 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zenon Konopka C | 6:20 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Ellis L | 9:57 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 20:07 | −0.30 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Flynn C | 14:20 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Moulson L | 22:59 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.31 | |
| Steve Ott C | 20:21 | −0.47 | −0.52 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.00 | ||
| Cody Hodgson C | 23:05 | 1 | −0.66 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | |
| Christian Ehrhoff D | 29:19 | 1 | −0.68 | −0.30 | −0.25 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Ennis R | 25:13 | 2 | −1.09 | +0.01 | −0.72 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.37 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Miller G | 63:46 | +0.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.