WPG beat EDM 3–2 in overtime. WPG also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jacob Trouba scored at 1:10 of overtime, moving WPG’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Ilya Bryzgalov saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 6:59 | EDM | Jordan EberlePP from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall | 1–0 | 48% → 68% |
| P3 5:48 | WPG | Jacob TroubaSH from Bryan Little | 1–1 | 23% → 51% |
| P3 10:37 | WPG | Mark Scheifele from Blake Wheeler, Eric O'Dell | 1–2 | 52% → 84% |
| P3 18:00 | EDM | David Perron from Jeff Petry, Sam Gagner | 2–2 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 1:10 | WPG | Jacob Trouba from Blake Wheeler | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Eberle R | 19:03 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.17 | +0.65 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Perron L | 17:19 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.17 | +0.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Marincin D | 18:46 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:20 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Gazdic L | 3:26 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Joensuu L | 4:10 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Jones L | 15:35 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Ference D | 22:52 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 20:12 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.27 | −0.43 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.49 | +0.00 | |
| Boyd Gordon C | 16:27 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Matt Hendricks C | 13:24 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Smyth L | 15:09 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Arcobello R | 12:38 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schultz D | 13:44 | −0.31 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Belov D | 14:35 | −0.35 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 19:13 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.02 | |
| Justin Schultz D | 22:58 | −0.41 | −0.13 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 24:49 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Bryzgalov G | 61:10 | +1.42 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Trouba D | 23:32 | 2 | +1.48 | +0.20 | +1.27 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Wheeler R | 19:04 | 2 | +0.67 | +0.33 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.33 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 18:05 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.29 | +0.12 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.03 | |
| Keaton Ellerby D | 8:36 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 25:41 | +0.10 | +0.34 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric O'Dell C | 8:41 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.30 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.02 | |
| Bryan Little C | 21:00 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 22:04 | +0.05 | +0.20 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Peluso R | 3:35 | +0.04 | +0.14 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Thorburn R | 7:24 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stuart D | 17:29 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pardy D | 15:02 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Jokinen C | 19:39 | −0.22 | +0.06 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Andrew Ladd L | 21:03 | −0.24 | +0.09 | −0.48 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Frolik R | 17:16 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Setoguchi R | 15:58 | −0.36 | −0.06 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Wright C | 7:40 | −0.37 | +0.18 | −0.53 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Toby Enstrom D | 24:36 | −0.53 | +0.10 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.33 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Pavelec G | 61:10 | +0.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.