LAK beat STL 4–1. Expected goals were close to even (LAK 2.3, STL 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Trevor Lewis scored at 2:04 of the third, moving LAK’s win probability from 48% to 74%. Jonathan Quick saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:31 | LAK | Jake Muzzin from Colin Fraser, Jordan Nolan | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 5:55 | STL | T.J. OshiePP unassisted | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 2:04 | LAK | Trevor Lewis from Slava Voynov, Jonathan Quick | 2–1 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 4:21 | LAK | Trevor LewisSH from Drew Doughty, Jarret Stoll | 3–1 | 74% → 92% |
| P3 19:04 | LAK | Jeff CarterEN from Anze Kopitar, Slava Voynov | 4–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lewis C | 15:33 | 2 | +1.40 | +0.08 | +1.33 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Muzzin D | 19:22 | 1 | +0.93 | −0.09 | +0.84 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 19:38 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.03 | |
| Dustin Brown R | 15:18 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Fraser C | 10:16 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.10 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.03 | |
| Willie Mitchell D | 19:47 | +0.05 | +0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 9:49 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Nolan C | 7:50 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robyn Regehr D | 15:47 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dwight King L | 13:55 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 15:31 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Slava Voynov D | 23:23 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Richards C | 14:59 | −0.15 | −0.19 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.16 | −0.04 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 26:58 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Frattin R | 14:21 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Williams R | 15:21 | −0.36 | −0.22 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 17:20 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | |
| Jarret Stoll C | 14:20 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.13 | −0.40 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 60:00 | +1.69 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Oshie R | 19:02 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.03 | +0.48 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Sobotka C | 17:39 | +0.27 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.33 | −0.01 | ||
| Barret Jackman D | 14:35 | +0.25 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Magnus Paajarvi L | 4:55 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Roy C | 12:58 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Roman Polak D | 16:56 | −0.05 | +0.10 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 19:54 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:55 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.23 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Leopold D | 17:34 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Backes R | 19:26 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.02 | ||
| Chris Stewart R | 13:41 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 25:30 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Morrow L | 9:03 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 18:57 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitrij Jaskin R | 10:48 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 7:42 | −0.31 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 26:47 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Berglund C | 16:05 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.53 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaroslav Halak G | 58:27 | −0.62 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.