COL beat CHI 3–2 in overtime. COL lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tyson Barrie scored on the power play at 4:09 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Semyon Varlamov saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:58 | COL | Tyson Barrie from Ryan Wilson, John Mitchell | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:00 | COL | Ryan O'ReillyPP from Nick Holden, Jamie McGinn | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 8:12 | CHI | Johnny Oduya from Brandon Saad, Andrew Shaw | 2–1 | 17% → 32% |
| P3 7:27 | CHI | Andrew Shaw from Brandon Saad, Marian Hossa | 2–2 | 22% → 52% |
| OT 4:09 | COL | Tyson BarriePP from Matt Duchene | 3–2 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Barrie D | 23:05 | 2 | +1.57 | −0.19 | +1.78 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:40 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.02 | +0.68 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Wilson D | 18:09 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.33 | +0.00 | |
| Jan Hejda D | 23:08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Benoit D | 24:26 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 25:11 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Bordeleau L | 5:59 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Malone C | 6:44 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 17:14 | −0.14 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 12:45 | −0.22 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| John Mitchell C | 20:16 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jamie McGinn L | 17:53 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.05 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Cody McLeod L | 13:08 | −0.47 | −0.04 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 22:18 | 1 | −0.52 | +0.06 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.07 | |
| Max Talbot C | 17:19 | −0.52 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.02 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 20:09 | −0.54 | −0.26 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.16 | +0.01 | ||
| Marc-Andre Cliche C | 16:12 | −0.57 | −0.05 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 64:09 | +2.21 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Oduya D | 20:55 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.09 | +0.62 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Shaw R | 19:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.23 | +0.47 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Michal Rozsival D | 11:10 | +0.41 | +0.43 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 15:04 | +0.30 | +0.42 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Smith R | 11:59 | +0.29 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Kruger C | 15:10 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Bollig L | 10:48 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michal Handzus C | 8:04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 22:27 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Bickell L | 6:34 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 18:20 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.21 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Duncan Keith D | 28:10 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Marian Hossa R | 21:35 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.17 | −0.20 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Versteeg R | 10:24 | −0.23 | +0.10 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 23:46 | −0.30 | −0.12 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.13 | ||
| Patrick Sharp L | 21:15 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.63 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.33 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Seabrook D | 24:57 | −0.56 | −0.16 | −0.41 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 21:49 | −0.56 | +0.01 | −0.50 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Crawford G | 64:09 | −0.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.