NYI beat MIN 5–4. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kyle Okposo scored at 14:12 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 49% to 85%. Josh Harding allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:22 | MIN | Ryan Suter from Mike Rupp, Torrey Mitchell | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 0:39 | MIN | Jonas Brodin from Mikko Koivu, Nino Niederreiter | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 2:59 | MIN | Nino Niederreiter from Mikko Koivu | 0–3 | 86% → 94% |
| P2 8:45 | NYI | John Tavares from Thomas Vanek, Kyle Okposo | 1–3 | 4% → 12% |
| P2 18:58 | NYI | Cal Clutterbuck from Thomas Hickey, Brock Nelson | 2–3 | 9% → 23% |
| P3 6:30 | NYI | Thomas Hickey from Colin McDonald, Ryan Strome | 3–3 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 12:13 | NYI | Kyle Okposo from Thomas Hickey, Andrew MacDonald | 4–3 | 49% → 83% |
| P3 13:45 | MIN | Justin Fontaine from Matt Cooke, Marco Scandella | 4–4 | 15% → 51% |
| P3 14:12 | NYI | Kyle Okposo from Thomas Vanek | 5–4 | 49% → 85% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hickey D | 20:38 | 1 | 2 | +0.82 | −0.04 | +0.41 | +0.46 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kyle Okposo R | 19:55 | 2 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.03 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Thomas Vanek L | 19:38 | 2 | +0.57 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.40 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 17:44 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.07 | +0.34 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 20:46 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.03 | +0.17 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 27:09 | +0.15 | +0.30 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin McDonald R | 12:14 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frans Nielsen C | 16:41 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.08 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 12:30 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 15:46 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.08 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Matt Martin L | 8:24 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew MacDonald D | 23:27 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Strait D | 17:49 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 17:15 | −0.14 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Boulton L | 5:38 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ness D | 10:58 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Peter Regin C | 13:35 | −0.23 | +0.14 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 11:53 | −0.39 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Poulin G | 60:00 | −1.11 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Brodin D | 24:31 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.10 | +0.45 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Koivu C | 22:50 | 2 | +0.46 | +0.12 | −0.15 | +0.36 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.11 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 16:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.01 | +0.41 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Justin Fontaine R | 12:15 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.16 | +0.39 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 33:14 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.14 | +0.31 | −0.15 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torrey Mitchell C | 10:05 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.01 | |
| Mike Rupp L | 5:06 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.05 | −0.06 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 16:33 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Dany Heatley L | 16:07 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 18:08 | −0.06 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Prosser D | 10:51 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stephane Veilleux L | 8:51 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 20:51 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jason Pominville R | 18:09 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Keith Ballard D | 10:16 | −0.19 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Cooke L | 15:24 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.29 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 19:20 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.05 | ||
| Kyle Brodziak C | 15:52 | −0.34 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Harding G | 59:31 | −1.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.