ANA beat NJD 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (ANA 1.8, NJD 1.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Kyle Palmieri scored at 2:37 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:15 | NJD | Michael Ryder from Adam Henrique | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 14:06 | ANA | Cam Fowler from Ben Lovejoy, Teemu Selanne | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 10:47 | ANA | Mathieu Perreault from Kyle Palmieri, Teemu Selanne | 2–1 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 14:58 | NJD | Andy GreenePP from Jaromir Jagr, Travis Zajac | 2–2 | 14% → 51% |
| OT 2:37 | ANA | Kyle Palmieri from Mathieu Perreault, Cam Fowler | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Palmieri C | 15:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.07 | +0.34 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 |
| Mathieu Perreault C | 16:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.06 | +0.32 | +0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Ben Lovejoy D | 21:16 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.30 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 25:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.11 | +0.34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Teemu Selanne R | 16:02 | 2 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Corey Perry R | 20:13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Francois Beauchemin D | 23:01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Fistric D | 15:23 | −0.08 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Jackman R | 6:43 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Allen D | 17:09 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 15:36 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 22:34 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Daniel Winnik L | 16:38 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 13:48 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Dustin Penner L | 11:44 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 19:05 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 14:36 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Saku Koivu C | 14:41 | −0.30 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Hiller G | 62:37 | −0.05 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Greene D | 28:26 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.17 | +0.32 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaromir Jagr R | 20:37 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.12 | −0.14 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Ryder R | 15:17 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.12 | +0.36 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 20:34 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.05 | −0.14 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.02 | |
| Anton Volchenkov D | 20:17 | +0.17 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steve Bernier R | 10:50 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Sestito L | 9:45 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Travis Zajac C | 21:47 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Marek Zidlicky D | 21:39 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 17:05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damien Brunner R | 4:17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Elias C | 23:18 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Andrei Loktionov C | 8:23 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mark Fayne D | 21:12 | −0.10 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Dainius Zubrus C | 20:35 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reid Boucher C | 9:30 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Gelinas D | 16:41 | −0.16 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stephen Gionta C | 12:40 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cory Schneider G | 62:12 | −0.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.