OTT beat STL 3–2 in overtime. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Cody Ceci scored at 3:59 of overtime, moving OTT’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:57 | OTT | Jean-Gabriel Pageau from Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 16:50 | STL | Chris Stewart from Derek Roy | 1–1 | 24% → 47% |
| P2 19:47 | STL | Chris Stewart from Derek Roy, Brenden Morrow | 2–1 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 5:44 | OTT | Bobby Ryan from Kyle Turris, Mika Zibanejad | 2–2 | 24% → 52% |
| OT 3:59 | OTT | Cody Ceci unassisted | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Stewart R | 13:31 | 2 | +1.46 | −0.04 | +1.51 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| David Backes R | 11:20 | +0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.03 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 20:01 | +0.11 | +0.15 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 28:35 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 28:19 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Polak D | 17:34 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Cracknell R | 7:21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barret Jackman D | 18:25 | −0.03 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Lapierre C | 13:00 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 19:28 | −0.11 | +0.11 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Roy C | 14:42 | 2 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Porter L | 13:13 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Carlo Colaiacovo D | 15:55 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Magnus Paajarvi L | 13:11 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Berglund C | 19:29 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brenden Morrow L | 16:47 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.10 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 19:23 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Steen L | 19:42 | −0.44 | +0.32 | −0.88 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Elliott G | 63:59 | −0.43 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 8:56 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.11 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 21:08 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.00 | +0.84 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby Ryan R | 19:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.10 | +0.38 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kyle Turris C | 22:37 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.20 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.07 | |
| Erik Condra R | 9:35 | +0.11 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:58 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Phillips D | 18:23 | +0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Cowen D | 26:12 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cory Conacher C | 8:10 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Neil R | 12:55 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Corvo D | 14:30 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Michalek L | 17:52 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 29:55 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Wiercioch D | 15:35 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Greening C | 15:31 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clarke MacArthur L | 16:31 | −0.37 | −0.21 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 19:31 | −0.52 | −0.27 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.16 | −0.01 | ||
| Zack Smith C | 15:54 | −0.57 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.33 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Lehner G | 63:59 | +0.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.