DAL beat WPG 6–4. DAL lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jamie Benn scored on the power play at 17:46 of the second, moving DAL’s win probability from 48% to 72%. Ondrej Pavelec allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:14 | DAL | Tyler Seguin from Sergei Gonchar | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:12 | WPG | Matt Halischuk from Mark Scheifele, Michael Frolik | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 14:24 | DAL | Valeri Nichushkin unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 12:58 | WPG | Blake WheelerPP from Olli Jokinen, Dustin Byfuglien | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 13:46 | DAL | Jamie Benn from Tyler Seguin, Sergei Gonchar | 3–2 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 14:53 | WPG | Blake Wheeler from Bryan Little | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 17:46 | DAL | Jamie BennPP from Tyler Seguin, Sergei Gonchar | 4–3 | 48% → 72% |
| P2 18:49 | DAL | Tyler SeguinPP from Sergei Gonchar, Ray Whitney | 5–3 | 73% → 89% |
| P3 2:48 | DAL | Colton Sceviour from Antoine Roussel, Brenden Dillon | 6–3 | 91% → 98% |
| P3 18:19 | WPG | Olli Jokinen from Chris Thorburn, Devin Setoguchi | 6–4 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Seguin C | 17:45 | 2 | 2 | +1.59 | +0.07 | +1.48 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jamie Benn L | 18:04 | 2 | +0.94 | +0.02 | +0.89 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 13:22 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.11 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sceviour C | 14:11 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.07 | +0.67 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sergei Gonchar D | 20:19 | 4 | +0.13 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aaron Rome D | 14:42 | +0.12 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Garbutt C | 12:21 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 14:45 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shawn Horcoff C | 16:08 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 16:02 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 24:00 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Cole L | 14:22 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Antoine Roussel L | 14:18 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ray Whitney L | 14:44 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Eakin C | 13:55 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.07 | ||
| Rich Peverley C | 12:42 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.03 | ||
| Alex Chiasson R | 16:52 | −0.32 | −0.06 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 23:01 | −0.48 | −0.26 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kari Lehtonen G | 60:00 | −0.43 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Wheeler R | 18:33 | 2 | +1.83 | +0.11 | +1.69 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Matt Halischuk R | 5:00 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.02 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Jokinen C | 16:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.09 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Mark Scheifele C | 17:05 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.02 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.33 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 20:15 | +0.23 | +0.11 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| John Albert C | 5:30 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mark Stuart D | 19:02 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pardy D | 12:51 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Grant Clitsome D | 14:33 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Little C | 20:08 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Anthony Peluso R | 2:45 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Frolik R | 19:36 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.17 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devin Setoguchi R | 17:05 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Toby Enstrom D | 24:57 | −0.25 | +0.16 | −0.43 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Ladd L | 20:33 | −0.26 | +0.08 | −0.48 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 27:49 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.32 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James Wright C | 15:17 | −0.35 | +0.17 | −0.49 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Chris Thorburn R | 13:13 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Al Montoya G | 18:42 | −0.41 |
| Ondrej Pavelec G | 40:00 | −2.49 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.