BUF beat OTT 2–1 in a shootout. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Zemgus Girgensons scored at 13:15 of the second, moving BUF’s win probability from 30% to 53%. Ryan Miller saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:25 | OTT | Milan Michalek from Cory Conacher | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 13:15 | BUF | Zemgus Girgensons from Christian Ehrhoff | 1–1 | 30% → 53% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milan Michalek L | 19:56 | 1 | +1.64 | −0.12 | +0.73 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.03 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 14:38 | +0.67 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.80 | ||
| Kyle Turris C | 21:56 | +0.41 | −0.09 | −0.71 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.02 | +1.03 | ||
| Colin Greening C | 14:43 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Jared Cowen D | 21:26 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Kassian L | 3:08 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Chris Neil R | 11:45 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Phillips D | 25:23 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Smith C | 13:27 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Cory Conacher C | 12:29 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.12 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.47 | |
| Joe Corvo D | 21:16 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Methot D | 20:01 | −0.29 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Condra R | 8:20 | −0.46 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | ||
| Patrick Wiercioch D | 18:07 | −0.51 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 24:16 | −0.58 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.31 | ||
| Clarke MacArthur L | 23:21 | −0.73 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.47 | ||
| Bobby Ryan R | 19:18 | −0.75 | −0.17 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 20:46 | −0.87 | −0.00 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.47 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Lehner G | 64:44 | +1.07 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 17:31 | 1 | +1.86 | +0.15 | +0.76 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.03 | |
| Brian Flynn C | 8:11 | +1.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.03 | ||
| Steve Ott C | 18:45 | +0.47 | −0.19 | −0.32 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +1.03 | ||
| Matt Moulson L | 21:20 | +0.28 | +0.30 | −0.54 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.68 | ||
| Cody McCormick C | 7:31 | +0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 16:21 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 21:55 | +0.01 | +0.43 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | ||
| John Scott L | 5:16 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 15:48 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Ehrhoff D | 28:05 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.22 | −0.20 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henrik Tallinder D | 21:16 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 22:23 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie McBain D | 26:16 | −0.33 | +0.23 | −0.60 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Adam C | 14:34 | −0.56 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.47 | ||
| Cody Hodgson C | 19:46 | −0.63 | +0.11 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.47 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 17:43 | −0.70 | −0.07 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.47 | ||
| Matt D'Agostini R | 14:44 | −0.79 | +0.01 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | ||
| Drew Stafford R | 16:40 | −0.80 | −0.33 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Miller G | 64:55 | +1.97 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.