BOS beat PIT 4–3 in overtime. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 2.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Torey Krug scored at 0:34 of overtime, moving BOS’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:27 | BOS | Loui Eriksson from Carl Soderberg | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 15:43 | BOS | Reilly SmithPP from Carl Soderberg, Loui Eriksson | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 0:37 | PIT | James Neal from Jussi Jokinen, Evgeni Malkin | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P3 11:09 | PIT | James Neal from Jussi Jokinen, Matt Niskanen | 2–2 | 16% → 48% |
| P3 14:45 | BOS | Zdeno Chara from David Krejci, Milan Lucic | 2–3 | 51% → 88% |
| P3 19:59 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Chris Kunitz, James Neal | 3–3 | 2% → 48% |
| OT 0:34 | BOS | Torey Krug from Brad Marchand, Loui Eriksson | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Neal L | 20:46 | 2 | 1 | +1.60 | +0.14 | +1.45 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sidney Crosby C | 23:57 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.09 | +0.47 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.16 | −0.03 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 20:55 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.16 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Joe Vitale C | 7:47 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 13:15 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Martin D | 25:24 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 20:25 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jussi Jokinen L | 15:02 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Craig Adams R | 9:05 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Sill C | 9:02 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt D'Agostini R | 11:27 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brooks Orpik D | 20:04 | −0.08 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Gibbons C | 13:37 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 25:27 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Sutter C | 15:16 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Niskanen D | 15:23 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pascal Dupuis R | 17:12 | −0.51 | −0.07 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kunitz L | 19:12 | 1 | −0.80 | −0.06 | −0.72 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 59:25 | −2.26 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zdeno Chara D | 25:38 | 1 | +1.04 | +0.09 | +0.92 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 15:41 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.06 | +0.91 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 14:00 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.05 | +0.76 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Loui Eriksson L | 18:16 | 1 | 2 | +0.45 | +0.16 | +0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Carl Soderberg C | 14:58 | 2 | +0.21 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 18:15 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Boychuk D | 20:57 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Krejci C | 17:34 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Matt Bartkowski D | 19:57 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shawn Thornton L | 8:45 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Paille L | 9:41 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kelly C | 17:07 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kevan Miller D | 20:13 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 16:27 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrice Bergeron C | 18:12 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Gregory Campbell C | 10:13 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 15:57 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.12 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Jarome Iginla R | 18:25 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tuukka Rask G | 60:34 | −0.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.