DET beat CAR 4–3. DET also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Niklas Kronwall scored on the power play at 8:29 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 59% to 83%. Jonas Gustavsson allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:17 | DET | Gustav Nyquist from Jonathan Ericsson, Henrik Zetterberg | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 2:37 | DET | Darren Helm from Justin Abdelkader | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 5:49 | CAR | Brett Bellemore from Radek Dvorak, Drayson Bowman | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 12:51 | CAR | Andrej Sekera from Eric Staal | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 8:29 | DET | Niklas KronwallPP from Johan Franzen, Henrik Zetterberg | 2–3 | 59% → 83% |
| P3 15:58 | DET | Gustav Nyquist from Henrik Zetterberg | 2–4 | 90% → 99% |
| P3 19:44 | CAR | Andrej SekeraSH from Jordan Staal | 3–4 | 0% → 3% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Sekera D | 20:51 | 2 | +1.17 | −0.25 | +1.45 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Bellemore D | 18:30 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.13 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Manny Malhotra C | 14:05 | +0.29 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.02 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 21:18 | +0.17 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Drayson Bowman L | 10:53 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tuomo Ruutu L | 15:59 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.01 | ||
| Patrick Dwyer R | 17:52 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jiri Tlusty L | 9:48 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Dvorak R | 11:29 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Terry L | 9:11 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Gerbe C | 19:49 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 8:03 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 21:16 | −0.33 | −0.27 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Murphy D | 20:35 | −0.35 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Gleason D | 16:32 | −0.35 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 20:05 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Eric Staal C | 18:49 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 17:56 | −0.55 | −0.23 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Peters G | 59:44 | +0.07 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustav Nyquist R | 15:27 | 2 | +2.11 | +0.21 | +1.57 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.33 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Helm C | 15:52 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.09 | +0.70 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Niklas Kronwall D | 24:33 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.35 | +0.37 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Henrik Zetterberg C | 17:55 | 3 | +0.17 | +0.18 | −0.23 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 19:52 | +0.12 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johan Franzen R | 16:16 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.17 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brian Lashoff D | 5:35 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 15:25 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pavel Datsyuk C | 19:21 | −0.07 | +0.16 | −0.27 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Cleary R | 12:57 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Miller L | 12:23 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jakub Kindl D | 20:58 | −0.15 | +0.10 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Andersson C | 11:42 | −0.16 | +0.12 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Justin Abdelkader L | 13:51 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jonathan Ericsson D | 20:32 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.14 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Todd Bertuzzi R | 14:53 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Samuelsson R | 10:35 | −0.21 | +0.09 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Quincey D | 24:21 | −0.21 | +0.11 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Gustavsson G | 59:32 | −1.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.