CHI beat OTT 6–5. CHI also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jonathan Toews scored at 9:13 of the third, moving CHI’s win probability from 52% to 82%. Craig Anderson allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:54 | CHI | Andrew ShawPP from Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 19:00 | OTT | Milan Michalek from Bobby Ryan | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 6:51 | OTT | Kyle TurrisPP from Clarke MacArthur, Erik Karlsson | 2–1 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 7:41 | CHI | Marian Hossa from Jonathan Toews, Niklas Hjalmarsson | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 10:19 | OTT | Joe Corvo from Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek | 3–2 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 11:14 | OTT | Mika Zibanejad from Kyle Turris, Clarke MacArthur | 4–2 | 69% → 85% |
| P2 14:30 | CHI | Jonathan Toews from Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa | 4–3 | 14% → 30% |
| P3 1:20 | CHI | Jonathan Toews from Johnny Oduya | 4–4 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 9:13 | CHI | Jonathan Toews from Brent Seabrook, Marian Hossa | 4–5 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 14:10 | CHI | Andrew Shaw from Jeremy Morin | 4–6 | 87% → 98% |
| P3 14:23 | OTT | Zack Smith unassisted | 5–6 | 2% → 12% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Smith C | 14:37 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.84 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Milan Michalek L | 17:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.15 | +0.85 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Joe Corvo D | 15:58 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.11 | +0.82 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 14:36 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.03 | +0.60 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Turris C | 17:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.07 | +0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Marc Methot D | 24:03 | +0.16 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Condra R | 11:23 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 26:16 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.16 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clarke MacArthur L | 18:23 | 2 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Wiercioch D | 15:54 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Neil R | 11:42 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Cowen D | 19:39 | −0.21 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 11:26 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Ryan R | 18:15 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.30 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Phillips D | 18:10 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Greening C | 9:51 | −0.36 | −0.05 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cory Conacher C | 11:54 | −0.41 | −0.05 | −0.37 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 19:34 | 1 | −0.83 | −0.13 | −0.78 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 59:16 | −2.37 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Toews C | 21:37 | 3 | 1 | +2.54 | +0.42 | +2.12 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Andrew Shaw R | 14:59 | 2 | +1.25 | +0.10 | +1.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Marian Hossa R | 18:10 | 1 | 2 | +0.82 | +0.31 | +0.48 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 22:09 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.31 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Oduya D | 20:20 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.26 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Pirri C | 13:20 | +0.09 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.33 | −0.01 | ||
| Patrick Sharp L | 19:16 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.47 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brad Mills C | 10:43 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Bickell L | 12:42 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Duncan Keith D | 24:08 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Bollig L | 9:58 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 15:22 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Morin L | 8:40 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Seabrook D | 22:38 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.11 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 19:02 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.26 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Kruger C | 12:33 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 16:21 | −0.30 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sheldon Brookbank D | 14:08 | −0.37 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Crawford G | 28:46 | +0.25 |
| Nikolai Khabibulin G | 31:14 | −2.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.