NSH beat WPG 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (WPG 2.5, NSH 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Craig Smith scored at 4:43 of overtime, moving NSH’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:53 | NSH | Shea WeberPP from David Legwand, Filip Forsberg | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 13:49 | WPG | Anthony Peluso from Olli Jokinen, Michael Frolik | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 6:04 | NSH | Patric Hornqvist from Mike Fisher, Seth Jones | 1–2 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 16:59 | WPG | Blake Wheeler from Zach Bogosian, Andrew Ladd | 2–2 | 8% → 49% |
| OT 4:43 | NSH | Craig Smith from David Legwand | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Peluso R | 9:44 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.03 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Wheeler R | 17:49 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.14 | +0.55 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Paul Postma D | 13:19 | +0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Setoguchi R | 15:28 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Little C | 19:57 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 22:35 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Halischuk R | 9:19 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stuart D | 13:26 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Tangradi L | 12:10 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Frolik R | 14:58 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Toby Enstrom D | 24:56 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 14:19 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| James Wright C | 13:54 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Olli Jokinen C | 14:55 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Ladd L | 21:12 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.11 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Grant Clitsome D | 24:58 | −0.36 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 23:12 | −0.64 | −0.34 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 30:19 | −0.65 | −0.34 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Pavelec G | 64:21 | −0.19 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Weber D | 31:43 | 1 | +1.19 | +0.41 | +0.59 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Craig Smith C | 16:10 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.10 | +0.73 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Patric Hornqvist R | 15:00 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.22 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Wilson C | 14:30 | +0.25 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 28:13 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.41 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Cullen C | 18:36 | +0.13 | +0.10 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.14 | ||
| Victor Bartley D | 12:25 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Ellis D | 13:58 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Fisher C | 17:30 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.22 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Gaustad C | 14:38 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.16 | +0.08 | ||
| Matt Hendricks C | 14:12 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| David Legwand C | 13:31 | 2 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 21:57 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Spaling C | 15:20 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 11:07 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Nystrom L | 16:14 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Klein D | 21:10 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Bourque L | 14:39 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hutton G | 64:42 | +0.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.