TOR beat NYI 5–4 in overtime. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Dion Phaneuf scored at 1:11 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Evgeni Nabokov allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:34 | NYI | Josh Bailey from Kyle Okposo, Andrew MacDonald | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:31 | TOR | Nazem Kadri from Mark Fraser | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 6:22 | NYI | Lubomir Visnovsky from Casey Cizikas, Colin McDonald | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 8:55 | TOR | Nazem Kadri from Mark Fraser, Cody Franson | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 10:25 | TOR | James van Riemsdyk from David Steckel, Colton Orr | 3–2 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 14:12 | TOR | Nazem Kadri from Michael Kostka, Carl Gunnarsson | 4–2 | 70% → 86% |
| P3 5:31 | NYI | Andrew MacDonald from Kyle Okposo, Mark Streit | 4–3 | 7% → 24% |
| P3 10:08 | NYI | Kyle Okposo unassisted | 4–4 | 20% → 52% |
| OT 1:11 | TOR | Dion Phaneuf from Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri C | 15:46 | 3 | +2.57 | +0.18 | +2.41 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Dion Phaneuf D | 24:12 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.16 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 19:33 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.06 | +0.48 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| David Steckel C | 7:53 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.19 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Franson D | 18:09 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Fraser D | 19:28 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frazer McLaren L | 7:03 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Komarov R | 14:58 | −0.08 | +0.15 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 19:34 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Orr R | 8:38 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.18 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clarke MacArthur L | 16:40 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.11 | −0.33 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Korbinian Holzer D | 18:31 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay McClement C | 17:04 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikhail Grabovski C | 17:32 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nikolay Kulemin L | 17:38 | −0.28 | −0.11 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Kostka D | 22:28 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bozak C | 20:00 | −0.32 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 19:37 | −0.68 | −0.36 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 61:11 | −1.17 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew MacDonald D | 22:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.03 | +0.90 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Lubomir Visnovsky D | 23:16 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.05 | +0.85 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 20:38 | 1 | 2 | +0.67 | −0.03 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Josh Bailey R | 21:31 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.08 | +0.46 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mark Streit D | 23:25 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 20:30 | +0.11 | +0.20 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Frans Nielsen C | 20:03 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Joe Finley D | 11:05 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 24:40 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Hickey D | 17:27 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 10:20 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Eric Boulton L | 6:48 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Boyes R | 19:15 | −0.08 | +0.19 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marty Reasoner C | 10:18 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 11:23 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Colin McDonald R | 10:37 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Grabner L | 11:24 | −0.34 | −0.10 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Moulson L | 19:35 | −0.37 | +0.19 | −0.57 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Nabokov G | 61:11 | −1.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.