DAL beat VAN 4–3. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brenden Dillon scored at 16:59 of the third, moving DAL’s win probability from 49% to 91%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:51 | DAL | Reilly Smith from Loui Eriksson, Derek Roy | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 3:21 | VAN | Daniel Sedin from Henrik Sedin | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 4:14 | VAN | Chris Higgins from Dale Weise, Ryan Kesler | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 9:56 | VAN | Alexandre Burrows from Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin | 1–3 | 74% → 88% |
| P2 17:50 | DAL | Cody Eakin from Trevor Daley, Michael Ryder | 2–3 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 12:22 | DAL | Antoine Roussel from Michael Ryder, Cody Eakin | 3–3 | 15% → 49% |
| P3 16:59 | DAL | Brenden Dillon from Jamie Benn, Stephane Robidas | 4–3 | 49% → 91% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Ryder R | 12:07 | 2 | +0.62 | +0.36 | −0.02 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 12:20 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.05 | +0.44 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Eakin C | 11:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.18 | +0.33 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Brenden Dillon D | 18:24 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.18 | +0.43 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 20:08 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Antoine Roussel L | 10:14 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.20 | +0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Daley D | 24:42 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Larsen D | 17:48 | +0.12 | +0.25 | +0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stephane Robidas D | 21:00 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 18:15 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Rome D | 19:55 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Roy C | 20:38 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Ryan Garbutt C | 8:20 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 19:32 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.35 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vernon Fiddler C | 9:13 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Eric Nystrom L | 9:38 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Morrow L | 20:16 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaromir Jagr R | 20:35 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kari Lehtonen G | 13:49 | +0.70 |
| Richard Bachman G | 45:59 | −0.97 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Sedin L | 19:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.08 | +0.32 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Henrik Sedin C | 19:47 | 2 | +0.33 | +0.09 | −0.12 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Chris Higgins L | 16:38 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.16 | +0.45 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Burrows R | 19:41 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.02 | +0.27 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keith Ballard D | 16:15 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bieksa D | 20:20 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Volpatti L | 6:20 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dale Weise R | 7:57 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 15:36 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jannik Hansen R | 13:43 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Schroeder C | 12:21 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ryan Kesler C | 17:27 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.32 | −0.17 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.06 | |
| Maxim Lapierre C | 10:54 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jason Garrison D | 21:16 | −0.17 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Hamhuis D | 21:09 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 16:52 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Raymond L | 14:45 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.13 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 23:02 | −0.44 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cory Schneider G | 58:47 | −0.95 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.