ANA beat LAK 7–4. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kyle Palmieri scored on the power play at 16:14 of the second, moving ANA’s win probability from 53% to 76%. Jonathan Bernier allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:30 | ANA | Nick Bonino from Emerson Etem | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 5:49 | ANA | Nick Bonino from Emerson Etem, Bryan Allen | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 9:15 | LAK | Dustin BrownPP from Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty | 1–2 | 17% → 30% |
| P1 9:49 | LAK | Jarret Stoll from Simon Gagne, Slava Voynov | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 13:30 | ANA | Ryan Getzlaf from Corey Perry | 2–3 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 1:15 | LAK | Dustin BrownPP from Drew Doughty, Mike Richards | 3–3 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 9:35 | ANA | Sheldon SourayPP unassisted | 3–4 | 54% → 74% |
| P2 14:12 | LAK | Justin Williams from Simon Gagne | 4–4 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 16:14 | ANA | Kyle PalmieriPP from Saku Koivu, Luca Sbisa | 4–5 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 8:39 | ANA | Nick BoninoPP from Bobby Ryan, Luca Sbisa | 4–6 | 83% → 96% |
| P3 17:54 | ANA | Teemu SelanneEN from Nick Bonino, Bobby Ryan | 4–7 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Brown R | 21:29 | 2 | +1.24 | +0.16 | +1.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jarret Stoll C | 17:04 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.13 | +0.76 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Justin Williams R | 17:14 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.32 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Davis Drewiske D | 15:39 | +0.19 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 10:05 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 16:41 | +0.13 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Slava Voynov D | 18:41 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.24 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Muzzin D | 12:21 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Penner L | 11:48 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rob Scuderi D | 24:02 | +0.04 | +0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Gagne L | 12:53 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.24 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Fraser C | 1:52 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 20:42 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 23:05 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.36 | −0.01 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 26:45 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.14 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Nolan C | 8:18 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Richards C | 19:46 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.19 | −0.51 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 16:07 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 5:49 | −1.74 |
| Jonathan Bernier G | 53:11 | −2.25 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bonino C | 10:22 | 3 | 1 | +2.30 | −0.05 | +2.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 8:55 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.08 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 21:47 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.24 | +0.64 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Sheldon Souray D | 26:03 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.11 | +0.76 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby Ryan R | 14:49 | 2 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.03 | |
| Daniel Winnik L | 18:54 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.36 | −0.01 | ||
| Teemu Selanne R | 13:56 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 15:02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Beleskey L | 15:43 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 7:18 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devante Smith-Pelly R | 6:46 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emerson Etem R | 7:04 | 2 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luca Sbisa D | 19:53 | 2 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Perry R | 21:17 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Bryan Allen D | 16:19 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Saku Koivu C | 20:09 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Francois Beauchemin D | 26:32 | −0.30 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Toni Lydman D | 23:04 | −0.36 | −0.17 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Hiller G | 60:00 | −0.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.