EDM beat CHI 8–4. EDM lost the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 4.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sam Gagner scored at 1:54 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 52% to 78%. Corey Crawford allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:29 | CHI | Jamal Mayers from Niklas Hjalmarsson, Marcus Kruger | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 0:40 | CHI | Patrick Sharp from Patrick Kane | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 2:22 | EDM | Taylor Hall from Sam Gagner | 2–1 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 7:26 | EDM | Sam Gagner from Jordan Eberle, Andy Sutton | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 12:23 | EDM | Ryan WhitneyPP from Sam Gagner | 2–3 | 54% → 74% |
| P2 15:33 | CHI | Patrick SharpSH from Jonathan Toews, Niklas Hjalmarsson | 3–3 | 24% → 46% |
| P3 1:54 | EDM | Sam Gagner from Ryan Whitney, Jordan Eberle | 3–4 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 3:43 | EDM | Cam Barker from Andy Sutton, Sam Gagner | 3–5 | 79% → 93% |
| P3 5:57 | CHI | Dave Bolland from Marcus Kruger, Andrew Shaw | 4–5 | 6% → 20% |
| P3 6:25 | EDM | Sam Gagner from Taylor Hall, Corey Potter | 4–6 | 80% → 95% |
| P3 14:31 | EDM | Sam Gagner from Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall | 4–7 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 16:15 | EDM | Jordan Eberle from Sam Gagner, Taylor Hall | 4–8 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Sharp L | 20:27 | 2 | +0.93 | −0.07 | +1.20 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | |
| Jamal Mayers R | 10:15 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.04 | +0.76 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Dave Bolland C | 16:49 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.02 | +0.45 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 20:37 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.25 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Kruger C | 12:50 | 2 | +0.07 | +0.27 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 20:53 | +0.02 | +0.11 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Scott L | 9:15 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Brunette L | 2:30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 18:35 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.17 | −0.38 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brent Seabrook D | 26:48 | −0.08 | +0.16 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Steve Montador D | 12:23 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Shaw R | 14:40 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.09 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.01 | |
| Viktor Stalberg L | 12:53 | −0.18 | +0.09 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marian Hossa R | 21:11 | −0.24 | −0.16 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Duncan Keith D | 26:43 | −0.27 | +0.08 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.32 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Bickell L | 6:07 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Morrison C | 12:55 | −0.45 | −0.09 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 20:25 | 1 | −0.52 | +0.25 | −0.99 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Emery G | 16:17 | −1.64 |
| Corey Crawford G | 43:35 | −2.00 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Gagner C | 17:28 | 4 | 4 | +3.04 | −0.14 | +3.02 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.16 | +0.01 |
| Ryan Whitney D | 20:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.04 | +0.87 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cam Barker D | 14:12 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.19 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 19:58 | 1 | 3 | +0.44 | −0.13 | +0.18 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.32 | −0.01 |
| Jordan Eberle R | 19:08 | 1 | 3 | +0.33 | −0.14 | +0.45 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Eric Belanger C | 15:21 | +0.09 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Lennart Petrell L | 10:57 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 20:36 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Philippe Cornet L | 10:16 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Sutton D | 14:55 | 2 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Potter D | 23:24 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ales Hemsky R | 18:31 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Smyth L | 18:51 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ladislav Smid D | 16:19 | −0.33 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lander C | 8:28 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Jones L | 14:52 | −0.35 | −0.05 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Eager L | 7:40 | −0.40 | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Shawn Horcoff C | 22:44 | −0.61 | −0.12 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devan Dubnyk G | 60:00 | +0.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.