COL beat STL 3–2 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (STL 3.1, COL 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Ryan O'Reilly scored at 9:34 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 20% to 52%. Semyon Varlamov saved 2.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:55 | STL | Kevin ShattenkirkPP from Jason Arnott, Alexander Steen | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:55 |  COL | Milan Hejduk from Ryan O'Reilly, Ryan Wilson | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 5:39 | STL | Patrik Berglund from Chris Stewart, Ian Cole | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 9:34 | COL | Ryan O'Reilly from Ryan O'Byrne, Jan Hejda | 2–2 | 20% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 25:45 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.10 | +0.65 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barret Jackman D | 22:04 | +0.11 | +0.31 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Porter L | 6:31 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 19:15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Steen L | 19:49 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.29 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.33 | |
| Jason Arnott C | 13:43 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Scott Nichol C | 11:16 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Chris Stewart R | 14:42 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Patrik Berglund C | 20:32 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.58 | +0.45 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 4:52 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Sobotka C | 18:33 | −0.20 | +0.11 | −0.30 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Roman Polak D | 20:31 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 24:14 | −0.25 | −0.45 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt D'Agostini R | 16:13 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 20:58 | −0.61 | +0.03 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.40 | ||
| David Backes R | 19:23 | −0.65 | +0.35 | −0.82 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 16:30 | 1 | −0.69 | −0.34 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Langenbrunner R | 15:01 | −0.79 | +0.08 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.51 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaroslav Halak G | 65:00 | +1.15 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:51 | 1 | 1 | +2.18 | +0.41 | +0.73 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.99 |
| Jan Hejda D | 21:15 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.67 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Byrne D | 19:34 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.64 | −0.30 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Milan Hejduk R | 21:47 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.46 | +0.35 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.33 | |
| Chuck Kobasew R | 14:06 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Wilson D | 18:28 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jay McClement C | 14:39 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Yip R | 7:39 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Kevin Porter C | 6:58 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| TJ Galiardi L | 7:17 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 20:39 | −0.19 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Kyle Quincey D | 25:10 | −0.21 | −0.39 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Elliott D | 22:11 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Winnik L | 15:20 | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 18:00 | −0.33 | +0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Shane O'Brien D | 23:22 | −0.49 | −0.38 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Jones R | 15:48 | −0.62 | +0.08 | −0.69 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 18:24 | −0.84 | +0.04 | −0.52 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.40 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 64:48 | +2.80 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.