NJD beat WPG 3–2 in overtime. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 1.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Adam Henrique scored at 1:28 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 54% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:08 | NJD | Patrik Elias from Dainius Zubrus, Bryce Salvador | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 12:59 | NJD | Adam Henrique from Zach Parise | 0–2 | 75% → 89% |
| P3 6:43 | WPG | Mark Flood from Dustin Byfuglien | 1–2 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 17:15 | WPG | Jim Slater from Mark Flood, Dustin Byfuglien | 2–2 | 8% → 49% |
| OT 1:28 | NJD | Adam Henrique from Zach Parise, Adam Larsson | 2–3 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Flood D | 19:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.03 | +0.89 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jim Slater C | 15:22 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.33 | +0.67 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Andrew Ladd L | 21:59 | +0.08 | −0.17 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.32 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Little C | 21:12 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.09 | ||
| Kenndal McArdle L | 3:30 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Maxwell C | 3:45 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Postma D | 13:37 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Glass L | 9:47 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stapleton C | 6:46 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Festerling D | 15:37 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Wellwood C | 19:26 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Chris Thorburn R | 9:37 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 25:01 | 2 | −0.30 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Burmistrov C | 22:40 | −0.55 | −0.51 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 24:07 | −0.75 | −0.39 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 22:40 | −0.81 | −0.41 | −0.42 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Oduya D | 20:37 | −0.94 | −0.90 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 26:25 | −0.97 | −0.92 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Pavelec G | 61:28 | +0.84 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Henrique C | 18:46 | 2 | +1.57 | +0.06 | +1.56 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Patrik Elias C | 19:08 | 1 | +1.12 | +0.59 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.10 | |
| Mark Fraser D | 13:53 | +0.41 | +0.39 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henrik Tallinder D | 24:59 | +0.28 | +0.66 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryce Salvador D | 24:15 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Volchenkov D | 14:24 | +0.18 | +0.33 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Fayne D | 19:06 | +0.13 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 24:30 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.91 | −1.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.32 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Carter L | 15:12 | +0.05 | +0.41 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Nick Palmieri R | 14:13 | +0.05 | +0.35 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 23:59 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rod Pelley C | 5:23 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cam Janssen R | 5:37 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Mills C | 6:15 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Petr Sykora R | 18:15 | −0.12 | +0.56 | −0.67 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dainius Zubrus C | 19:52 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.19 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mattias Tedenby R | 15:19 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Clarkson R | 16:46 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Brodeur G | 61:28 | −0.45 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.