PIT beat NYI 4–3 in a shootout. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 4.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Travis Hamonic scored on the power play at 19:25 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 5% to 51%. Marc-Andre Fleury saved 2.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:57 | PIT | Mike Rupp from Eric Godard, Craig Adams | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 11:11 | PIT | Zbynek MichalekPP from Kris Letang, Tyler Kennedy | 2–0 | 70% → 85% |
| P2 15:18 | NYI | Blake Comeau from Matt Moulson, Jesse Joensuu | 2–1 | 13% → 30% |
| P3 8:14 | NYI | Blake ComeauPP from Michael Grabner, Travis Hamonic | 2–2 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 12:21 | PIT | Mark Letestu from Mike Rupp, Arron Asham | 3–2 | 49% → 83% |
| P3 19:25 | NYI | Travis HamonicPP from Kyle Okposo | 3–3 | 5% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kunitz L | 20:56 | +0.97 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.04 | ||
| Mark Letestu C | 14:51 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.13 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Zbynek Michalek D | 31:37 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.35 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Lovejoy D | 12:43 | +0.29 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Rupp L | 7:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.29 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 |
| Eric Godard R | 3:03 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Craig Adams R | 13:42 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.26 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | |
| Deryk Engelland D | 10:28 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Martin D | 28:20 | −0.06 | +0.19 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arron Asham R | 10:15 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Kennedy C | 17:39 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.09 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| James Neal L | 6:50 | −0.36 | +0.05 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Talbot C | 18:12 | −0.44 | −0.18 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 26:07 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.16 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.30 | |
| Brooks Orpik D | 20:58 | −0.64 | −0.36 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Pascal Dupuis R | 20:02 | −0.65 | −0.15 | −0.50 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 25:13 | −0.82 | −0.38 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Kovalev R | 18:23 | −0.84 | −0.10 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.36 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 65:00 | +2.85 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Hamonic D | 28:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.09 | +0.84 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Blake Comeau L | 19:57 | 2 | +0.35 | −0.28 | +1.30 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.46 | |
| Ty Wishart D | 24:20 | +0.15 | +0.28 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Reese D | 20:19 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Martinek D | 23:54 | +0.06 | +0.14 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 12:45 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 20:18 | +0.01 | +0.32 | −0.36 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Gillies L | 2:09 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Katic D | 20:05 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Micheal Haley L | 8:44 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 23:32 | −0.21 | +0.47 | −0.85 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.51 | +0.00 | −0.36 | ||
| Jamie Doornbosch D | 5:21 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| PA Parenteau R | 19:05 | −0.32 | +0.32 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.31 | ||
| Zenon Konopka C | 6:41 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.34 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Joensuu L | 11:13 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 18:57 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.17 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Moulson L | 22:59 | 1 | −0.59 | +0.62 | −1.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Grabner L | 20:20 | 1 | −0.79 | −0.13 | −0.63 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Al Montoya G | 63:44 | +0.50 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.