BUF beat FLA 3–2 in overtime. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 1.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Tyler Myers scored at 4:55 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:22 | BUF | Mike Weber from Jason Pominville, Jochen Hecht | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 18:38 | FLA | Steve BernierPP from Jason Garrison, Dennis Wideman | 1–1 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 8:59 | BUF | Thomas Vanek from Jason Pominville, Tyler Myers | 2–1 | 48% → 79% |
| P3 10:03 | FLA | Marty Reasoner from Dennis Wideman | 2–2 | 20% → 52% |
| OT 4:55 | BUF | Tyler Myers from Nathan Gerbe | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Myers D | 25:35 | 1 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.17 | +0.77 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 |
| Mike Weber D | 21:27 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.22 | +0.86 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Vanek L | 19:14 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.27 | +0.46 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Shaone Morrisonn D | 19:36 | +0.20 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sekera D | 24:00 | +0.19 | +0.22 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody McCormick C | 9:43 | +0.15 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 10:56 | +0.13 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mike Grier R | 15:53 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Connolly C | 16:15 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jason Pominville R | 18:44 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Drew Stafford R | 16:52 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rob Niedermayer C | 16:54 | −0.05 | +0.21 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Leopold D | 20:09 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 15:45 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Gaustad C | 16:36 | −0.25 | +0.08 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Nathan Gerbe C | 13:53 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.08 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Butler D | 17:00 | −0.36 | −0.10 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jochen Hecht C | 19:29 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.09 | −0.47 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Miller G | 64:55 | −0.27 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Reasoner C | 17:48 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.15 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Steve Bernier R | 16:04 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.08 | +0.48 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 10:53 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keaton Ellerby D | 15:26 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darcy Hordichuk L | 3:22 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stephen Weiss C | 21:22 | −0.06 | +0.09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mike Santorelli C | 20:02 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bill Thomas R | 5:18 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Weaver D | 24:43 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Garrison D | 25:25 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rostislav Olesz L | 17:18 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dennis Wideman D | 27:47 | 2 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Booth L | 20:06 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Skille R | 17:45 | −0.28 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Timmins C | 6:47 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Higgins L | 20:28 | −0.34 | +0.04 | −0.52 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.02 | ||
| Bryan Allen D | 25:42 | −0.40 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Dvorak R | 19:24 | −0.45 | −0.42 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tomas Vokoun G | 64:55 | −0.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.