CAR beat ATL 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (ATL 3.6, CAR 3.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Erik Cole scored at 2:48 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ATL–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:33 | ATL | Niclas BergforsPP from Bryan Little, Johnny Oduya | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 8:16 | CAR | Eric StaalPP from Tuomo Ruutu, Jeff Skinner | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 8:37 | CAR | Brandon Sutter from Jiri Tlusty, Joni Pitkanen | 1–2 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 12:14 | ATL | Brent Sopel unassisted | 2–2 | 15% → 49% |
| P3 12:42 | CAR | Jiri Tlusty from Patrick Dwyer, Ian White | 2–3 | 51% → 86% |
| P3 18:36 | ATL | Zach BogosianPP from Bryan Little, Rich Peverley | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 2:48 | CAR | Erik Cole from Jamie McBain, Joni Pitkanen | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ATL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Sopel D | 20:00 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.03 | +0.91 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 24:52 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.08 | +0.80 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evander Kane L | 18:57 | +0.69 | +0.36 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.34 | −0.01 | ||
| Niclas Bergfors R | 11:46 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.17 | +0.68 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Oduya D | 25:14 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.38 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Arturs Kulda D | 12:08 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stapleton C | 8:13 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Chris Thorburn R | 14:13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Nik Antropov C | 15:49 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 19:45 | −0.19 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Burmistrov C | 9:53 | −0.21 | +0.19 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Patrice Cormier C | 9:48 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrew Ladd L | 23:31 | −0.22 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.17 | −0.03 | ||
| Freddy Modin L | 9:38 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 23:48 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Stewart R | 13:52 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.55 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Little C | 21:01 | 2 | −0.75 | −0.32 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.07 | |
| Rich Peverley C | 16:15 | 1 | −0.83 | +0.32 | −1.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Pavelec G | 62:28 | −0.81 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Sutter C | 16:42 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.32 | +0.70 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 | |
| Jiri Tlusty L | 9:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.15 | +0.85 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.34 | +0.00 |
| Zach Boychuk L | 6:48 | +0.09 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.02 | ||
| Jamie McBain D | 16:23 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Staal C | 25:54 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.13 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Tim Gleason D | 21:05 | +0.04 | +0.26 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sergei Samsonov L | 15:23 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Harrison D | 16:40 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cole L | 21:47 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.17 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Carter L | 7:39 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian White D | 18:52 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Bodie R | 6:17 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chad LaRose R | 14:47 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tuomo Ruutu L | 18:20 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 19:34 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Dwyer R | 11:48 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Corvo D | 27:04 | −0.28 | +0.07 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joni Pitkanen D | 22:18 | 2 | −0.73 | −0.22 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.34 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward G | 62:48 | +0.49 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.