FLA beat NJD 3–2 in overtime. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Dmitry Kulikov scored at 3:36 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Martin Brodeur allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:01 | NJD | Nick Palmieri from Travis Zajac, Anssi Salmela | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:07 | FLA | Evgenii DadonovPP from Stephen Weiss, Dennis Wideman | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 2:15 | FLA | Dennis WidemanPP from Mike Santorelli, Dmitry Kulikov | 1–2 | 54% → 72% |
| P3 8:47 | NJD | David Clarkson from Tim Sestito | 2–2 | 18% → 48% |
| OT 3:36 | FLA | Dmitry Kulikov from Stephen Weiss, Cory Stillman | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Clarkson R | 15:23 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.25 | +0.19 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Sestito L | 9:28 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.02 | |
| Nick Palmieri R | 11:00 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.11 | +0.23 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Fraser D | 16:57 | +0.24 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rod Pelley C | 8:30 | +0.12 | +0.24 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anssi Salmela D | 16:11 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Mair C | 2:29 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Zajac C | 21:03 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Andy Greene D | 26:52 | −0.06 | +0.26 | −0.28 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Arnott C | 17:29 | −0.07 | +0.17 | −0.06 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Zharkov R | 15:22 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ilya Kovalchuk L | 26:57 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Fayne D | 16:32 | −0.14 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Elias C | 23:16 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Colin White D | 17:43 | −0.28 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Dainius Zubrus C | 22:03 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Henrik Tallinder D | 21:05 | −0.35 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Rolston R | 19:20 | −0.44 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Brodeur G | 63:36 | −2.74 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 17:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dennis Wideman D | 22:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.12 | +0.32 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Stephen Weiss C | 22:20 | 2 | +0.34 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.40 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| David Booth L | 16:50 | +0.24 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.34 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 14:37 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.06 | +0.29 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cory Stillman L | 18:18 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | |
| Mike Santorelli C | 15:32 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Steve Bernier R | 7:43 | +0.07 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shawn Matthias L | 11:35 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Bryan Allen D | 20:12 | −0.10 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Garrison D | 25:40 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darcy Hordichuk L | 3:54 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Frolik R | 15:31 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Dvorak R | 18:31 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rostislav Olesz L | 15:02 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marty Reasoner C | 19:13 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mike Weaver D | 24:47 | −0.24 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan McCabe D | 16:16 | −0.28 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Clemmensen G | 63:32 | +1.09 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.