COL beat OTT 6–5 in overtime. COL lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matt Duchene scored at 2:36 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Brian Elliott allowed 3.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:14 | OTT | Erik Karlsson from Chris Kelly, Jarkko Ruutu | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:55 | COL | TJ Galiardi from Kevin Shattenkirk, Kevin Porter | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 7:48 | OTT | Milan Michalek from Ryan Shannon | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 10:14 | COL | Cody McLeod from John-Michael Liles, Philippe Dupuis | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 11:39 | OTT | Matt Carkner from Chris Neil, Chris Kelly | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 16:55 | COL | Matt DuchenePP from John-Michael Liles, Kevin Shattenkirk | 3–3 | 34% → 53% |
| P3 2:08 | COL | Kevin Porter from Philippe Dupuis | 3–4 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 4:29 | OTT | Jason SpezzaPP from Alex Kovalev, Mike Fisher | 4–4 | 27% → 56% |
| P3 11:15 | OTT | Daniel Alfredsson from Nick Foligno | 5–4 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 16:47 | COL | Ryan O'Reilly from Daniel Winnik, Ryan O'Byrne | 5–5 | 10% → 51% |
| OT 2:36 | COL | Matt Duchene from Tomas Fleischmann | 5–6 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Carkner D | 15:16 | 1 | +1.09 | +0.27 | +0.84 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Spezza C | 21:00 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.27 | +0.48 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 26:38 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.16 | +0.77 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Daniel Alfredsson R | 20:17 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.13 | +0.63 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.34 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Campoli D | 19:56 | +0.26 | +0.25 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Winchester C | 6:53 | +0.23 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.34 | +0.01 | ||
| Milan Michalek L | 17:53 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.10 | +0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Shannon R | 13:40 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 18:10 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jarkko Ruutu L | 15:04 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Neil R | 13:15 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Peter Regin C | 8:23 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Chris Kelly C | 14:06 | 2 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.06 | |
| Alex Kovalev R | 10:40 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Phillips D | 22:08 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sergei Gonchar D | 21:41 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Kuba D | 18:46 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Fisher C | 21:42 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.15 | −0.58 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Elliott G | 62:36 | −3.59 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Duchene C | 19:35 | 2 | +1.72 | +0.15 | +1.56 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cody McLeod L | 4:14 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.10 | +0.63 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 16:41 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.02 | +0.63 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Kevin Porter C | 15:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.15 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| John-Michael Liles D | 22:45 | 2 | +0.54 | +0.21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.34 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Galiardi L | 17:51 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.27 | +0.56 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Philippe Dupuis C | 11:07 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Daniel Winnik L | 19:48 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| David Koci L | 2:16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Hunwick D | 20:45 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Foote D | 23:09 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Yip R | 16:09 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 17:17 | 2 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Greg Mauldin L | 17:18 | −0.19 | +0.12 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Jones R | 19:09 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Tomas Fleischmann L | 17:31 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Byrne D | 22:17 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Wilson D | 17:50 | −0.41 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.34 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 62:36 | −2.42 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.