NYR beat PIT 3–2 in overtime. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 1.5 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Callahan scored at 3:38 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:16 | NYR | Erik Christensen from Ruslan Fedotenko, Matt Gilroy | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P3 17:29 | PIT | Chris Kunitz from Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby | 1–1 | 9% → 51% |
| P3 18:07 | PIT | Matt Cooke from Pascal Dupuis | 1–2 | 50% → 95% |
| P3 18:34 | NYR | Marc Staal from Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan | 2–2 | 4% → 48% |
| OT 3:38 | NYR | Ryan Callahan from Brandon Dubinsky, Dan Girardi | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Christensen C | 10:34 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.09 | +0.83 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Staal D | 29:24 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.11 | +0.72 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Callahan R | 20:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.12 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 |
| Michael Sauer D | 13:36 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Gilroy D | 9:15 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Todd White C | 5:13 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Anisimov C | 15:56 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 11:00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ruslan Fedotenko L | 14:15 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steve Eminger D | 26:07 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Dubinsky C | 22:36 | 2 | −0.19 | +0.14 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.10 | |
| Sean Avery L | 7:35 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marian Gaborik R | 18:34 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Frolov L | 12:12 | −0.29 | −0.23 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Del Zotto D | 21:51 | −0.34 | −0.20 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 15:55 | −0.36 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dan Girardi D | 27:35 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Prust L | 14:43 | −0.41 | −0.37 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 63:35 | +1.06 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cooke L | 15:34 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.13 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.01 | |
| Chris Kunitz L | 20:58 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.17 | +0.29 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 27:28 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.44 | −0.43 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 27:27 | +0.14 | +0.29 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 29:45 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.25 | −0.41 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Kris Letang D | 31:41 | +0.06 | +0.30 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brooks Orpik D | 17:49 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pascal Dupuis R | 15:03 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Deryk Engelland D | 10:51 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Martin D | 20:32 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Adams R | 7:24 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Chris Conner R | 11:51 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Comrie C | 7:52 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Max Talbot C | 10:46 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Arron Asham R | 10:23 | −0.05 | +0.17 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Rupp L | 9:39 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Zbynek Michalek D | 18:56 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Letestu C | 14:41 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 63:30 | −1.20 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.