VGK beat CAR 5–4. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Tomas Hertl scored at 16:36 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 49% to 90%. Frederik Andersen allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:25 |  CAR | Nikolaj Ehlers from Jaccob Slavin, Jalen Chatfield | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 12:08 | CAR | Nikolaj Ehlers from Jalen Chatfield | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P1 13:28 |  VGK | Shea Theodore from Brayden McNabb, Cole Smith | 1–2 | 16% → 30% |
| P2 0:30 | VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Jack Eichel, Brayden McNabb | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 4:35 | VGK | William Karlsson from Mitch Marner, Brett Howden | 3–2 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 12:42 | CAR | Jordan Staal from K'Andre Miller | 3–3 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 1:21 | VGK | Brett Howden from Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb | 4–3 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 11:19 | CAR | Shayne Gostisbehere unassisted | 4–4 | 19% → 52% |
| P3 16:36 | VGK | Tomas Hertl from Colton Sissons, Shea Theodore | 5–4 | 49% → 90% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Theodore D | 23:00 | 1 | 2 | +1.15 | +0.27 | +0.87 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:49 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.02 | +0.80 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| William Karlsson C | 18:05 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.08 | +0.54 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 15:10 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.21 | +0.56 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Brett Howden C | 14:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.02 | +0.72 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Brayden McNabb D | 21:13 | 3 | +0.30 | +0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 16:59 | +0.24 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 20:54 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.26 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 13:14 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 20:33 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.29 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 13:32 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 6:43 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:15 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 8:23 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 14:01 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Cole Smith L | 11:11 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:18 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:19 | −0.31 | +0.14 | −0.44 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 59:30 | −1.63 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 16:16 | 2 | +1.50 | −0.08 | +1.58 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 15:30 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.12 | +0.68 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 19:12 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.20 | +0.60 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| William Carrier L | 10:48 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 12:48 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 23:51 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:24 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 11:02 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 19:24 | 2 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 14:02 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:52 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:35 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 17:31 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 22:19 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 15:37 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 15:22 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 10:33 | −0.42 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.39 | −0.02 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 17:40 | −0.66 | −0.21 | −0.46 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 58:14 | −2.49 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.