MTL beat TBL 2–1. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 1.0 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alex Newhook scored at 11:07 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 48% to 81%. Jakub Dobes saved 2.4 goals above expected. MTL won the series 4–3.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:39 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Kaiden Guhle, Josh Anderson | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 13:27 | TBL | Dominic JamesPP from Charle-Edouard D'Astous, Gage Goncalves | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 11:07 | MTL | Alex Newhook from Lane Hutson, Kaiden Guhle | 2–1 | 48% → 81% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Newhook C | 16:09 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.15 | +0.83 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:48 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.05 | +0.71 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 17:56 | +0.24 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 21:25 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 6:48 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 17:50 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 5:06 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 14:29 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 15:33 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Evans C | 16:46 | −0.16 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 20:56 | 2 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 8:51 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 18:37 | −0.20 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 11:02 | −0.22 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 23:27 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 11:15 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 22:39 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 25:22 | −0.47 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 60:00 | +2.38 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic James C | 13:27 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.35 | +0.47 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 22:12 | +0.26 | +0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:50 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 15:42 | +0.08 | +0.21 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 16:01 | +0.08 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 17:18 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 17:41 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.17 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:00 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 16:17 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 8:58 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 26:07 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 12:38 | −0.15 | +0.11 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 16:22 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.33 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 12:12 | −0.27 | +0.29 | −0.55 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 20:16 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 14:33 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.29 | −0.59 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 21:53 | −0.35 | −0.09 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 15:06 | −0.52 | −0.14 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 57:30 | −1.33 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.