TBL beat MTL 1–0 in overtime. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 4.7 to 4.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Gage Goncalves scored at 9:03 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Andrei Vasilevskiy saved 4.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT 9:03 | TBL | Gage Goncalves from Dominic James, Brandon Hagel | 1–0 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gage Goncalves C | 15:26 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.03 | +0.62 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brayden Point C | 17:21 | +0.26 | +0.51 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 29:05 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.57 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Lilleberg D | 16:26 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 9:43 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 25:34 | +0.13 | +0.11 | −0.18 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 28:11 | +0.10 | +0.53 | −0.44 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:55 | +0.06 | +0.55 | −0.44 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 12:24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 23:11 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 12:25 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:44 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic James C | 13:36 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 23:10 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 21:52 | −0.25 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 18:29 | −0.33 | +0.12 | −0.25 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 13:53 | −0.34 | −0.12 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:50 | −0.46 | +0.53 | −0.80 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 69:03 | +4.05 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki C | 24:55 | +0.24 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 22:31 | +0.09 | +0.35 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 30:46 | +0.06 | +0.28 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 24:29 | +0.05 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 5:39 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 19:41 | −0.13 | +0.29 | −0.42 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 12:53 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 16:08 | −0.24 | +0.05 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 12:09 | −0.35 | −0.23 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 24:14 | −0.39 | −0.28 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 11:46 | −0.41 | −0.34 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 14:31 | −0.43 | −0.19 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 19:31 | −0.43 | −0.55 | −0.08 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 28:47 | −0.51 | −0.51 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 15:39 | −0.66 | −0.34 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 17:38 | −0.70 | +0.25 | −0.76 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 18:53 | −0.72 | −0.42 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 17:05 | −0.75 | −0.21 | −0.34 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 69:03 | +2.70 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.