MTL beat TBL 3–2. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alexandre Texier scored at 1:06 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 48% to 73%. Jakub Dobes saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:00 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Alex Newhook | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 6:49 |  TBL | Dominic James from Gage Goncalves, Yanni Gourde | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 7:00 | MTL | Kirby Dach from Zachary Bolduc, Kaiden Guhle | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 17:23 | TBL | Jake Guentzel unassisted | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 1:06 | MTL | Alexandre Texier from Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki | 3–2 | 48% → 73% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Gallagher R | 6:48 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.07 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 11:46 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 13:40 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.06 | +0.83 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 21:41 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.14 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jayden Struble D | 10:23 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 13:13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 13:26 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 23:31 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 15:32 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 14:35 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.11 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:42 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 9:54 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 19:40 | −0.28 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 23:27 | −0.34 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 27:54 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 11:07 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.42 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 15:14 | −0.48 | +0.05 | −0.44 | −0.19 | +0.10 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 19:27 | −0.60 | −0.30 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 60:00 | +1.84 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic James C | 13:14 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.02 | +0.70 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 22:11 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.18 | +0.44 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Max Crozier D | 17:40 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 21:17 | +0.01 | +0.22 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 16:23 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 15:47 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Geekie C | 5:04 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 7:21 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 15:56 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 14:47 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 20:33 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 14:23 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Corey Perry R | 6:55 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 25:26 | −0.20 | +0.26 | −0.46 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 13:51 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 23:12 | −0.24 | +0.39 | −0.63 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 20:49 | −0.29 | +0.17 | −0.46 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 21:44 | −0.35 | +0.32 | −0.67 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 57:27 | −0.65 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.