TBL beat MTL 3–2. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brandon Hagel scored at 15:07 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 49% to 87%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:06 | MTL | Zachary Bolduc from Kaiden Guhle, Alexandre Texier | 0–1 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 13:29 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson | 0–2 | 75% → 89% |
| P2 19:06 |  TBL | Jake Guentzel from J.J. Moser, Darren Raddysh | 1–2 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 1:40 | TBL | Brandon HagelPP from Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 15:07 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Nikita Kucherov, J.J. Moser | 3–2 | 49% → 87% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel L | 25:34 | 2 | +1.28 | +0.19 | +1.29 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 22:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.37 | +0.48 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Brayden Point C | 19:57 | +0.28 | +0.55 | −0.44 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 20:22 | +0.17 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 19:33 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:57 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.41 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominic James C | 11:25 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 7:33 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 25:18 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.44 | −0.25 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Lilleberg D | 13:43 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 8:46 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 8:18 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 10:44 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 8:50 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Crozier D | 11:54 | −0.23 | +0.09 | −0.13 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 18:58 | −0.24 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 19:37 | −0.28 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 12:46 | −0.34 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | +0.48 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 19:03 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.08 | +0.66 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 11:53 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.00 | +0.63 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 26:15 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.23 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 15:02 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 8:18 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 12:44 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Demidov R | 15:29 | −0.00 | +0.22 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 9:24 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 22:48 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 15:49 | −0.15 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 13:18 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:46 | −0.19 | +0.14 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 9:51 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 15:47 | −0.26 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:23 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.42 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 7:32 | −0.37 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 21:24 | −0.44 | −0.44 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 23:08 | −0.66 | −0.45 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 58:17 | −0.15 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.