MTL beat TBL 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (TBL 2.2, MTL 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Lane Hutson scored at 2:09 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:53 | MTL | Alexandre Texier from Zachary Bolduc, Kirby Dach | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:42 |  TBL | Brayden PointPP from Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P2 4:47 | TBL | Brandon Hagel unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 12:43 | MTL | Kirby Dach from Arber Xhekaj | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| OT 2:09 | MTL | Lane Hutson from Alexandre Texier, Zachary Bolduc | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel L | 24:58 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.02 | +0.79 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 18:22 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.13 | +0.74 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 16:08 | +0.22 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 20:12 | +0.13 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Carlile D | 11:20 | +0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 24:17 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Scott Sabourin R | 3:44 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:52 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 16:04 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 9:32 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 20:35 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:18 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 7:58 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Dominic James C | 12:20 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.24 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 14:27 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 26:17 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 17:54 | −0.38 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 25:27 | −0.46 | +0.06 | −0.51 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 62:09 | −0.23 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Texier L | 11:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.05 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Lane Hutson D | 26:40 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.06 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 11:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.08 | +0.68 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Jake Evans C | 16:18 | +0.28 | +0.11 | −0.06 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 23:25 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 17:51 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 9:58 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 10:40 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 17:37 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.22 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 21:44 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:08 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 8:35 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:11 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 15:18 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 12:19 | 2 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 14:51 | −0.25 | +0.10 | −0.16 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 24:36 | −0.32 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 17:32 | −0.86 | −0.15 | −0.52 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 61:34 | +0.00 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.