TBL beat MTL 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 2.9, TBL 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: J.J. Moser scored at 12:48 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Andrei Vasilevskiy saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:40 |  TBL | Brandon Hagel from Jake Guentzel, Erik Cernak | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 16:11 |  MTL | Lane HutsonPP from Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 18:36 | MTL | Josh Anderson from Phillip Danault, Jake Evans | 2–1 | 47% → 72% |
| P3 12:33 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel | 2–2 | 17% → 51% |
| OT 12:48 | TBL | J.J. Moser from Anthony Cirelli | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Anderson R | 17:21 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.27 | +0.29 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 12:02 | +0.16 | +0.07 | −0.30 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 27:18 | +0.08 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 32:00 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.17 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 10:53 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 10:04 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 24:50 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.14 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jayden Struble D | 15:05 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 18:38 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 28:47 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 18:57 | −0.17 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 16:37 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 20:39 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 25:33 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 9:05 | −0.31 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 16:39 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 25:08 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 26:24 | −0.49 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 72:48 | −0.25 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Moser D | 29:14 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.13 | +0.88 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 23:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.03 | +0.90 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 23:22 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.10 | +0.60 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominic James C | 13:25 | +0.25 | +0.22 | −0.15 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 19:58 | +0.16 | +0.36 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 21:26 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 22:43 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 25:10 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Declan Carlile D | 17:38 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.11 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 21:34 | −0.09 | +0.11 | −0.37 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 21:06 | −0.09 | +0.17 | −0.07 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 23:31 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 27:28 | −0.25 | +0.20 | −0.25 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 13:32 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 10:49 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:54 | −0.26 | −0.18 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Scott Sabourin R | 8:20 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 18:41 | −0.35 | +0.07 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 72:14 | +1.13 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.