MTL beat TBL 4–3 in overtime. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Juraj Slafkovský scored on the power play at 1:22 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 50% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:24 |  MTL | Josh Anderson from Alexandre Carrier, Mike Matheson | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 12:15 |  TBL | Darren RaddyshPP from Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 12:44 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Jake Guentzel, Ryan McDonagh | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 19:36 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Ivan Demidov, Cole Caufield | 2–2 | 24% → 48% |
| P3 5:56 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki | 3–2 | 49% → 76% |
| P3 8:58 | TBL | Brandon HagelPP from Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov | 3–3 | 22% → 52% |
| OT 1:22 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki | 4–3 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 21:11 | 3 | +1.81 | +0.27 | +1.54 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 14:47 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.12 | +0.76 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 21:21 | +0.37 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:58 | 2 | +0.36 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 29:00 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.37 | −0.28 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Demidov R | 16:34 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.41 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jayden Struble D | 12:33 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 10:59 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 8:25 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 10:58 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 18:36 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 9:10 | −0.08 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 13:19 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 10:32 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 21:11 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.26 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 15:16 | −0.15 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 22:56 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 16:23 | −0.54 | −0.10 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 61:13 | −0.52 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel L | 25:27 | 2 | +1.49 | +0.21 | +1.47 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 23:55 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.09 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 9:35 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 17:27 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 18:30 | +0.06 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Conor Geekie C | 8:12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic James C | 7:18 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 21:19 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Perry R | 8:42 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 10:43 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 13:47 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 22:12 | −0.20 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:35 | −0.25 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:42 | −0.30 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:35 | −0.33 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 20:53 | −0.40 | −0.18 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 17:38 | 2 | −0.42 | +0.06 | −0.29 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 22:57 | 3 | −0.51 | +0.34 | −0.62 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 61:22 | −0.89 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.