CAR beat VGK 3–0. CAR lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jackson Blake scored at 13:31 of the second, moving CAR’s win probability from 70% to 86%. Brandon Bussi saved 2.6 goals above expected. CAR won the Stanley Cup 4–2.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:47 | CAR | Taylor Hall from Jaccob Slavin, Jackson Blake | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 13:31 | CAR | Jackson Blake from Logan Stankoven | 2–0 | 70% → 86% |
| P3 18:52 | CAR | Nikolaj EhlersEN unassisted | 3–0 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Hall L | 14:38 | 1 | +1.06 | +0.02 | +0.84 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 14:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.06 | +0.65 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| K'Andre Miller D | 22:59 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 8:50 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 16:26 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 8:53 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:31 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Walker D | 23:50 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 10:26 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 11:40 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 15:28 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 23:37 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:01 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:14 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 11:54 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 17:02 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 18:44 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 16:15 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.19 | −0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 60:00 | +2.56 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Dowd C | 11:29 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 9:21 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 13:58 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 15:27 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braeden Bowman R | 9:12 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 16:33 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 10:43 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:12 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 24:07 | −0.13 | +0.18 | −0.09 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 13:11 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 24:17 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 14:52 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 11:48 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 22:58 | −0.22 | +0.06 | −0.46 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 19:11 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 23:49 | −0.29 | +0.13 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:50 | −0.44 | +0.12 | −0.56 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 17:00 | −0.47 | +0.25 | −0.57 | −0.19 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 58:02 | −0.15 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.