CAR beat VGK 4–2. CAR lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Andrei Svechnikov scored on the power play at 11:58 of the second, moving CAR’s win probability from 54% to 74%. Carter Hart allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:52 |  VGK | Pavel DorofeyevPP from Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 11:46 | CAR | Jordan Staal from Nikolaj Ehlers, Seth Jarvis | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 11:58 | CAR | Andrei SvechnikovPP from Shayne Gostisbehere, Nikolaj Ehlers | 1–2 | 54% → 74% |
| P2 17:51 | CAR | Sebastian Aho from Sean Walker, Jordan Martinook | 1–3 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 11:08 | CAR | Andrei SvechnikovPP from Nikolaj Ehlers, Shayne Gostisbehere | 1–4 | 97% → 100% |
| P3 13:49 | VGK | Pavel Dorofeyev from Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel | 2–4 | 0% → 2% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:53 | 2 | +1.61 | +0.18 | +1.43 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Coghlan D | 11:26 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 9:55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 11:39 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 8:43 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 21:38 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 21:47 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 12:37 | −0.13 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 23:43 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 12:43 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 13:26 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.19 | −0.44 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 21:53 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 12:03 | −0.25 | +0.08 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 14:32 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:29 | −0.27 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 15:06 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 23:31 | 2 | −0.38 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.19 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 57:07 | −1.81 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 16:23 | 2 | +1.56 | +0.08 | +1.48 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:01 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.01 | +0.62 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 17:22 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.10 | +0.39 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 17:46 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 15:14 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 9:19 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 14:29 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 9:48 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:55 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 9:13 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 16:19 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.24 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 14:01 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 21:04 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:47 | 3 | −0.16 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 14:57 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 20:05 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 19:51 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:00 | −0.27 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 60:00 | +0.93 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.