CAR beat VGK 5–3. Expected goals were close to even (CAR 2.5, VGK 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jordan Staal scored at 6:32 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 48% to 77%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:06 | CAR | Logan Stankoven from Jalen Chatfield, Jackson Blake | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:28 | CAR | Jackson Blake from Taylor Hall, Nikolaj Ehlers | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P1 7:22 |  VGK | Mark Stone from Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb | 2–1 | 24% → 37% |
| P1 12:48 | CAR | Jordan StaalPP from Shayne Gostisbehere, Sebastian Aho | 3–1 | 65% → 78% |
| P2 4:22 | VGK | William Karlsson from Rasmus Andersson, Mitch Marner | 3–2 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 17:08 | VGK | Brett Howden from Colton Sissons, William Karlsson | 3–3 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 6:32 | CAR | Jordan Staal from Nikolaj Ehlers | 4–3 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 19:05 | CAR | Nikolaj EhlersEN unassisted | 5–3 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal C | 16:34 | 2 | +1.39 | +0.06 | +1.25 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 16:54 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.09 | +0.53 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 15:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.04 | +0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 22:51 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 24:41 | +0.10 | +0.17 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 22:17 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 9:38 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 10:18 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 8:23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 12:56 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 19:09 | 1 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Alexander Nikishin D | 10:13 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 18:30 | −0.11 | +0.11 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 22:45 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 13:02 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 18:14 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:48 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 16:33 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.12 | −0.44 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 60:00 | −0.79 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Howden C | 15:40 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.08 | +0.88 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| William Karlsson C | 16:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.07 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Mark Stone R | 21:34 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.08 | +0.29 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dylan Coghlan D | 10:25 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 16:09 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:20 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 12:11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 9:50 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 21:35 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 23:58 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 6:17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 17:01 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 13:55 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 20:44 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.35 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 10:33 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 12:33 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:46 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 25:00 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 58:15 | −0.99 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.