VGK beat CAR 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (CAR 3.3, VGK 3.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Shea Theodore scored at 5:38 of the second overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Frederik Andersen allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:26 |  VGK | Tomas HertlPP from Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner | 0–1 | 54% → 74% |
| P2 10:42 | VGK | Mitch Marner from William Karlsson, Shea Theodore | 0–2 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 14:32 | VGK | Mitch Marner from Brayden McNabb | 0–3 | 90% → 97% |
| P2 16:52 | VGK | Mitch Marner from Tomas Hertl | 0–4 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 7:03 | CAR | Jordan Martinook from Seth Jarvis, Logan Stankoven | 1–4 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 7:29 | CAR | Taylor Hall from Sebastian Aho, Jackson Blake | 2–4 | 1% → 5% |
| P3 7:42 | CAR | Jordan Staal from Jaccob Slavin, Eric Robinson | 3–4 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 18:18 | CAR | Andrei SvechnikovPP from Jordan Staal, Sebastian Aho | 4–4 | 6% → 50% |
| 2OT 5:38 | VGK | Shea Theodore from Brayden McNabb, Brett Howden | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 25:49 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.17 | +0.60 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 22:57 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.14 | +0.58 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 22:43 | +0.63 | +0.46 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 23:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.18 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| Jordan Martinook L | 20:41 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.12 | +0.53 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 24:51 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 24:36 | +0.22 | +0.29 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 23:50 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| William Carrier L | 6:51 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 18:44 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Nikishin D | 19:16 | −0.05 | +0.19 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 27:22 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.27 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 28:15 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 33:25 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 34:20 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 29:56 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 15:10 | −0.29 | +0.06 | −0.42 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 24:10 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.07 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 45:26 | +1.04 |
| Frederik Andersen G | 40:00 | −2.66 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 27:00 | 3 | 1 | +2.00 | +0.48 | +1.52 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Shea Theodore D | 39:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.00 | +0.86 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Tomas Hertl C | 15:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.07 | +0.68 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:53 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 15:49 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 23:25 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:40 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 24:09 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.27 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Dylan Coghlan D | 17:38 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 30:56 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 25:08 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 35:47 | 2 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 19:19 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 21:31 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.12 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 19:40 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 17:47 | −0.35 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 27:03 | −0.41 | −0.10 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 26:43 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.19 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.12 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 99:42 | −0.28 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.