CAR beat VGK 4–3 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Seth Jarvis scored on the power play at 3:56 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Carter Hart allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:33 |  VGK | Brett Howden from Mitch Marner | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 7:23 | VGK | Brett Howden from Ivan Barbashev, Noah Hanifin | 2–0 | 68% → 83% |
| P3 10:20 |  CAR | Logan Stankoven unassisted | 2–1 | 4% → 20% |
| P3 12:46 | CAR | Mark Jankowski from William Carrier, Eric Robinson | 2–2 | 17% → 51% |
| P3 15:25 | CAR | Jordan StaalPP from Shayne Gostisbehere, Andrei Svechnikov | 2–3 | 52% → 89% |
| P3 18:39 | VGK | Mark StonePP from Mitch Marner, Tomas Hertl | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 3:56 | CAR | Seth JarvisPP from Shayne Gostisbehere, Sebastian Aho | 3–4 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Howden C | 15:35 | 2 | +1.46 | +0.03 | +1.24 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Mark Stone R | 19:57 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.13 | +0.69 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 19:55 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 21:00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 5:39 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 24:15 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 22:22 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 21:08 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 28:30 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 9:07 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 9:35 | −0.22 | +0.08 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 16:19 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 22:37 | 2 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Coghlan D | 16:31 | −0.28 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 19:07 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:55 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.03 | −0.57 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 12:06 | −0.42 | −0.16 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 14:22 | −0.49 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 63:32 | −1.51 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Jarvis R | 20:04 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.08 | +0.75 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 17:04 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.03 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 16:54 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.00 | +0.69 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 9:47 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.02 | +0.79 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:28 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 15:55 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Walker D | 20:32 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:51 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 8:49 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 24:25 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 10:23 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 24:09 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:37 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.32 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Alexander Nikishin D | 16:18 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:52 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 16:58 | −0.26 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 17:09 | −0.42 | +0.07 | −0.50 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:25 | −0.61 | +0.01 | −0.43 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 63:56 | +0.26 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.