VGK beat COL 2–1. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mark Stone scored at 4:42 of the first, moving VGK’s win probability from 53% to 69%. VGK won the series 4–0.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:42 |  VGK | Mark Stone from Brayden McNabb, Shea Theodore | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P3 14:15 | VGK | Cole Smith from Dylan Coghlan, Nic Dowd | 0–2 | 87% → 98% |
| P3 17:57 |  COL | Gabriel LandeskogPP from Martin Necas, Nazem Kadri | 1–2 | 0% → 6% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 19:48 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.09 | +0.74 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Martin Necas C | 20:06 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 24:31 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:42 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brent Burns D | 18:39 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 8:50 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 11:05 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 17:30 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 10:24 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:15 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:10 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 14:58 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 14:16 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 16:37 | −0.21 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 11:48 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 27:30 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 11:39 | −0.33 | −0.08 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 19:18 | −0.53 | −0.05 | −0.46 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 57:54 | +0.79 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Stone R | 15:42 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.18 | +0.60 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 9:20 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.01 | +0.73 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 7:43 | +0.26 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 23:56 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 11:53 | +0.19 | +0.12 | −0.12 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 11:28 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 18:19 | +0.14 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 13:08 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.17 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 23:31 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:36 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 21:12 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 20:31 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 22:22 | −0.09 | +0.16 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 19:07 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 17:34 | −0.19 | +0.14 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:26 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 10:57 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.11 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 15:15 | −0.24 | +0.08 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 60:00 | +0.62 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.