VGK beat COL 5–3. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tomas Hertl scored at 8:21 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 52% to 82%. Scott Wedgewood allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:21 |  COL | Gabriel Landeskog from Devon Toews, Nathan MacKinnon | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 7:03 | COL | Nazem Kadri from Martin Necas, Josh Manson | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 13:15 | COL | Jack DrurySH from Parker Kelly, Devon Toews | 3–0 | 77% → 91% |
| P2 0:19 |  VGK | Mark StonePP from Mitch Marner, Tomas Hertl | 3–1 | 8% → 20% |
| P2 4:05 | VGK | William Karlsson from Mitch Marner | 3–2 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 12:46 | VGK | Keegan Kolesar from Dylan Coghlan, Kaedan Korczak | 3–3 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 8:21 | VGK | Tomas Hertl from Mark Stone, Kaedan Korczak | 3–4 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 19:01 | VGK | Brett HowdenEN from William Karlsson, Shea Theodore | 3–5 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Drury C | 11:04 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.06 | +0.79 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:19 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.00 | +0.61 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Devon Toews D | 23:14 | 2 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 16:20 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 24:04 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 12:52 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 17:15 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 21:18 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.29 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 12:02 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 12:57 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 15:04 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 27:14 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 19:02 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 11:17 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 16:38 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 8:29 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 8:34 | −0.38 | −0.09 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 18:02 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.03 | −0.61 | +0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 58:15 | −1.11 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl C | 13:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.07 | +0.58 | +0.19 | +0.02 |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 5:19 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.11 | +0.72 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| William Karlsson C | 17:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.09 | +0.54 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mark Stone R | 15:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.02 | +0.53 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brayden McNabb D | 23:45 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 9:38 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 23:32 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 10:20 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 23:02 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 12:27 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:57 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 11:04 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 17:03 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 23:59 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.14 | −0.09 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:09 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.33 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 23:17 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 6:08 | −0.27 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 21:06 | −0.34 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 59:44 | +0.43 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.