VGK beat COL 3–1. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 2.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ivan Barbashev scored at 11:22 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 48% to 82%. Carter Hart saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:59 |  COL | Ross Colton from Brent Burns, Nazem Kadri | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P3 9:15 |  VGK | Jack Eichel from Pavel Dorofeyev, Ivan Barbashev | 1–1 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 11:22 | VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Jack Eichel, Pavel Dorofeyev | 2–1 | 48% → 82% |
| P3 18:57 | VGK | Ivan BarbashevEN from Rasmus Andersson | 3–1 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:15 | 2 | 1 | +0.93 | −0.15 | +0.89 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jack Eichel C | 19:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.12 | +0.85 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Nic Dowd C | 13:03 | +0.15 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 11:13 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 13:23 | +0.05 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 9:13 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 16:42 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 17:42 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 13:43 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 9:48 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 17:09 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 26:41 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 12:13 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 24:01 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 9:18 | −0.24 | +0.06 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:56 | 2 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 25:32 | −0.58 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 21:02 | −0.68 | +0.06 | −0.74 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 60:00 | +1.23 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Colton C | 8:18 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.08 | +0.74 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jack Drury C | 9:56 | +0.10 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 9:52 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:30 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.19 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 9:21 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 28:59 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 9:35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 16:45 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 16:23 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.23 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 20:07 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 20:40 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 20:01 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.14 | −0.12 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 18:06 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 11:39 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 17:48 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.15 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 20:16 | −0.32 | +0.04 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 15:07 | −0.34 | −0.11 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 21:05 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 55:32 | +0.50 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.