VGK beat COL 4–2. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Dylan Coghlan scored at 12:29 of the second, moving VGK’s win probability from 47% to 69%. Carter Hart saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 12:29 | VGK | Dylan Coghlan from Brandon Saad, Colton Sissons | 1–0 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 15:02 | VGK | Pavel DorofeyevPP from Mitch Marner, Tomas Hertl | 2–0 | 71% → 87% |
| P3 1:34 | VGK | Brett Howden from Ben Hutton | 3–0 | 90% → 98% |
| P3 5:53 |  COL | Valeri Nichushkin from Ross Colton | 3–1 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 17:39 | COL | Gabriel LandeskogPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews | 3–2 | 1% → 8% |
| P3 19:15 | VGK | Nic DowdEN from Jack Eichel, Rasmus Andersson | 4–2 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Coghlan D | 8:13 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.08 | +0.83 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 14:21 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.04 | +0.70 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 18:11 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.10 | +0.53 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 8:10 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:32 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 25:42 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 23:29 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 11:28 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 13:18 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 10:45 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Cole Smith L | 11:56 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 10:02 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 21:11 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 21:35 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.11 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:25 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 27:22 | −0.39 | +0.06 | −0.25 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 19:32 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.11 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 10:01 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 60:00 | +2.03 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 13:39 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.08 | +0.62 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 21:21 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.63 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 23:06 | +0.23 | +0.26 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 21:25 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 19:02 | +0.05 | +0.15 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 10:16 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.26 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Ahcan D | 7:34 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 9:55 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 12:40 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 15:42 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 27:32 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 8:57 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 23:41 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 21:32 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:26 | −0.38 | +0.15 | −0.49 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 18:15 | −0.39 | +0.06 | −0.41 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 17:40 | −0.43 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 9:55 | 1 | −0.58 | +0.10 | −0.48 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 57:15 | −0.53 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.