CAR beat MTL 6–1. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Taylor Hall scored at 9:17 of the first, moving CAR’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Frederik Andersen saved 1.8 goals above expected. CAR won the series 4–1.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:17 |  CAR | Taylor Hall from Logan Stankoven, Jackson Blake | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 15:12 | CAR | Logan Stankoven from Taylor Hall, Alexander Nikishin | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 16:52 | CAR | Eric Robinson from William Carrier | 0–3 | 85% → 93% |
| P2 7:19 | CAR | Jackson Blake from Taylor Hall, Logan Stankoven | 0–4 | 95% → 99% |
| P2 18:02 | CAR | Shayne GostisbeherePP from Seth Jarvis, Nikolaj Ehlers | 0–5 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 10:50 |  MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Lane Hutson | 1–5 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 16:19 | CAR | Seth JarvisEN from Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov | 1–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 18:19 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.11 | +0.55 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 6:33 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 11:12 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 15:46 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.13 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 10:23 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 12:28 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 10:04 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 20:37 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 16:39 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 21:41 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 17:28 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 18:43 | −0.24 | −0.16 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 18:19 | −0.25 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 19:13 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 21:59 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.18 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:05 | −0.34 | −0.11 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 13:42 | −0.55 | −0.10 | −0.45 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:04 | −0.92 | −0.15 | −0.55 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 58:22 | −0.77 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Blake R | 15:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.16 | +0.59 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Eric Robinson L | 12:21 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.04 | +0.68 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 16:53 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.11 | +0.80 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 15:26 | 1 | 2 | +0.71 | +0.16 | +0.56 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Logan Stankoven C | 16:00 | 1 | 2 | +0.58 | +0.14 | +0.46 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:55 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 19:01 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 21:26 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:00 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 10:12 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 18:04 | 1 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.23 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Alexander Nikishin D | 12:14 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 12:28 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 14:18 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 15:05 | −0.25 | +0.07 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 16:20 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.05 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:21 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.06 | −0.43 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:33 | −0.50 | +0.07 | −0.57 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 60:00 | +1.77 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.