CAR beat MTL 4–0. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 5.3 to 1.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sebastian Aho scored on the power play at 14:59 of the first, moving CAR’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Jakub Dobes saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:59 |  CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Nikolaj Ehlers, Shayne Gostisbehere | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:07 | CAR | Jordan Staal from K'Andre Miller, Nikolaj Ehlers | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P1 17:46 | CAR | Logan Stankoven from Jackson Blake, Shayne Gostisbehere | 3–0 | 79% → 92% |
| P3 18:06 | CAR | Andrei SvechnikovEN from Jalen Chatfield | 4–0 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal C | 16:21 | 1 | +1.13 | +0.11 | +0.80 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:20 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.05 | +0.73 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Alexander Nikishin D | 12:41 | +0.33 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:05 | 2 | +0.33 | +0.08 | −0.13 | +0.39 | −0.01 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 19:41 | +0.14 | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 24:41 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Walker D | 20:40 | +0.09 | +0.20 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 10:43 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 14:16 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 16:08 | 2 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:21 | −0.11 | +0.11 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 16:46 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.13 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 10:41 | −0.27 | +0.06 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 18:44 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:18 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 15:33 | −0.34 | +0.13 | −0.28 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 12:51 | −0.44 | +0.08 | −0.71 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 17:34 | −0.46 | +0.02 | −0.47 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 60:00 | +1.28 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Carrier D | 23:22 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 6:05 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 20:05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 6:30 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 18:29 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 11:54 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 17:18 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 17:27 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 21:04 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 19:14 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.30 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 23:05 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 8:45 | −0.25 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 18:17 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 11:27 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:59 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 14:16 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 18:52 | −0.32 | −0.17 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 11:09 | −0.57 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.39 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 59:01 | +2.11 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.