CAR beat MTL 3–2 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Andrei Svechnikov scored at 14:06 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jakub Dobes saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:24 |  CAR | Shayne Gostisbehere from Mark Jankowski, Eric Robinson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:28 |  MTL | Mike Matheson from Ivan Demidov, Jake Evans | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P1 16:22 | CAR | Taylor Hall from K'Andre Miller, Jackson Blake | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 4:43 | MTL | Lane HutsonPP from Cole Caufield, Jakub Dobes | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| OT 14:06 | CAR | Andrei Svechnikov from Seth Jarvis | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 21:25 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.30 | +0.35 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 20:56 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.13 | +0.64 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 18:36 | +0.26 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 20:06 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.26 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:49 | +0.09 | +0.41 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 20:03 | +0.08 | +0.28 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 20:56 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.33 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Walker D | 27:26 | +0.06 | +0.25 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 11:37 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 13:17 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 12:52 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 30:07 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.37 | −0.45 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Nikishin D | 16:45 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 17:33 | −0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 24:38 | −0.13 | +0.14 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 22:25 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.28 | −0.44 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 22:48 | −0.21 | +0.12 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 22:54 | −0.23 | +0.14 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 73:58 | −0.61 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lane Hutson D | 28:55 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.06 | +0.74 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 29:23 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.43 | +0.85 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 16:01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 8:03 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 8:26 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 25:37 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 20:01 | −0.13 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 20:04 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 15:28 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 10:44 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 21:35 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 19:33 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Demidov R | 22:23 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 25:34 | −0.40 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 21:42 | −0.41 | −0.40 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 21:39 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 24:59 | −0.44 | −0.44 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 22:23 | −0.70 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 74:06 | +2.11 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.