CAR beat MTL 3–2 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nikolaj Ehlers scored at 3:29 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:33 |  CAR | Eric Robinson from William Carrier, Mark Jankowski | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 11:11 |  MTL | Josh Anderson from Phillip Danault, Kaiden Guhle | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 17:03 | CAR | Nikolaj Ehlers from Jaccob Slavin, Jalen Chatfield | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 12:51 | MTL | Josh Anderson from Alexandre Carrier, Phillip Danault | 2–2 | 14% → 49% |
| OT 3:29 | CAR | Nikolaj Ehlers from Mark Jankowski, Jalen Chatfield | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Anderson R | 14:33 | 2 | +1.72 | +0.08 | +1.44 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 19:23 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 14:33 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 10:01 | −0.08 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 15:42 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 24:52 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 17:53 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 12:53 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 11:22 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:51 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 24:34 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 11:56 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 22:14 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 19:15 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 19:47 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:45 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 13:01 | −0.36 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 20:50 | −0.44 | −0.36 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 63:29 | −0.95 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 19:57 | 2 | +1.53 | +0.18 | +1.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 10:12 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.16 | +0.70 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 16:39 | +0.30 | +0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:21 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 23:22 | 2 | +0.21 | +0.26 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 23:05 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 12:08 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.07 | −0.12 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:10 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| William Carrier L | 9:39 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 18:45 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:35 | −0.02 | +0.15 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 17:32 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 20:32 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 15:33 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 13:36 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:57 | −0.28 | +0.06 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 16:11 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 20:29 | −0.44 | +0.09 | −0.52 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 63:29 | −0.40 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.