MTL beat CAR 6–2. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Phillip Danault scored at 4:04 of the first, moving MTL’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Frederik Andersen allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:33 |  CAR | Seth Jarvis from Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 1:00 |  MTL | Cole Caufield from Juraj Slafkovský, Nick Suzuki | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 4:04 | MTL | Phillip Danault from Alexandre Carrier | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 8:11 | MTL | Alexandre Texier from Phillip Danault, Kaiden Guhle | 3–1 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 11:32 | MTL | Ivan Demidov from Alex Newhook, Jake Evans | 4–1 | 77% → 91% |
| P2 2:46 | CAR | Eric Robinson from William Carrier | 4–2 | 7% → 19% |
| P3 7:05 | MTL | Juraj Slafkovský from Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield | 5–2 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 17:32 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýEN from Nick Suzuki | 6–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 15:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.02 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ivan Demidov R | 12:16 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.05 | +0.65 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 14:23 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.12 | +0.70 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 16:41 | 2 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.02 | +0.54 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Phillip Danault C | 15:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.04 | +0.57 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jake Evans C | 17:06 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 8:59 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 18:48 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 14:36 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 22:35 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 14:10 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 17:45 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 10:39 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 19:14 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 21:04 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 11:30 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 22:36 | −0.30 | −0.20 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 18:30 | 3 | −0.58 | −0.01 | −0.57 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 60:00 | +0.64 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Robinson L | 10:35 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.01 | +0.77 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 15:31 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.03 | +0.39 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 13:33 | +0.16 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:17 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 17:25 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:46 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 14:36 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 20:49 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 18:41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 9:37 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 17:05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 18:58 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 20:40 | −0.17 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 17:21 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 11:45 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 12:46 | −0.28 | +0.11 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 19:46 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.49 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 16:38 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 57:11 | −2.31 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.