VGK beat ANA 5–1. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mitch Marner scored at 1:02 of the first, moving VGK’s win probability from 47% to 62%. Lukas Dostal allowed 3.1 goals more than expected. VGK won the series 4–2.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:02 |  VGK | Mitch Marner from William Karlsson, Shea Theodore | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 8:30 | VGK | Brett HowdenSH from Mitch Marner | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 17:19 | VGK | Shea TheodorePP from Tomas Hertl | 3–0 | 80% → 92% |
| P2 12:46 |  ANA | Mikael GranlundPP from Troy Terry, Leo Carlsson | 3–1 | 4% → 14% |
| P3 2:52 | VGK | Pavel Dorofeyev from Ivan Barbashev | 4–1 | 91% → 98% |
| P3 13:32 | VGK | Pavel Dorofeyev from Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin | 5–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 16:43 | 2 | +1.47 | +0.02 | +1.44 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 24:38 | 1 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.09 | +0.91 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mitch Marner R | 18:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.05 | +0.85 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brett Howden C | 16:13 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.60 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 11:26 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 17:01 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Dylan Coghlan D | 19:30 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 7:01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 10:54 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 9:05 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 12:27 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 10:26 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 26:04 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Karlsson C | 17:32 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Cole Smith L | 10:44 | −0.24 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 20:25 | −0.36 | +0.09 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 25:55 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 14:58 | −0.52 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.39 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 60:00 | +1.63 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Granlund C | 24:09 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.07 | +0.34 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 13:28 | +0.17 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 16:45 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jeffrey Viel L | 11:35 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 14:17 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 6:04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 8:46 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 15:49 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 13:39 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:09 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 9:30 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 20:27 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 23:02 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 12:20 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 21:11 | −0.27 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 20:03 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.46 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 17:34 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 29:36 | −0.37 | −0.05 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 55:31 | −3.07 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.