VGK beat ANA 3–2 in overtime. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Pavel Dorofeyev scored at 4:10 of overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:36 |  ANA | Beckett SenneckePP from Cutter Gauthier, Mason McTavish | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 16:13 |  VGK | Pavel DorofeyevPP from Tomas Hertl, Jack Eichel | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P3 4:48 | VGK | Tomas Hertl from Brandon Saad, Rasmus Andersson | 1–2 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 16:55 | ANA | Olen Zellweger from Cutter Gauthier, Mason McTavish | 2–2 | 8% → 49% |
| OT 4:10 | VGK | Pavel Dorofeyev from Jack Eichel | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olen Zellweger D | 16:33 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.08 | +0.79 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 24:13 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.03 | +0.48 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 2:20 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 25:49 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 30:47 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 20:05 | 2 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 22:36 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 10:50 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 14:51 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 22:24 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 9:52 | −0.20 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 14:17 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 19:09 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| John Carlson D | 26:16 | −0.26 | −0.12 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 16:52 | −0.31 | −0.16 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 13:39 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 14:12 | −0.38 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 14:31 | 2 | −0.55 | +0.08 | −0.61 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 64:10 | +0.26 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 16:30 | 2 | +1.41 | +0.10 | +1.31 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 14:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.11 | +0.76 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Cole Smith L | 10:54 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 10:39 | +0.14 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 30:00 | +0.13 | +0.31 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 19:03 | +0.12 | +0.22 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 14:13 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 20:52 | +0.05 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 18:45 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 20:05 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 23:04 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.17 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 18:20 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 3:17 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:03 | −0.23 | +0.12 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 17:08 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 11:38 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 26:37 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.04 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 28:01 | −0.37 | −0.04 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 64:10 | +0.79 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.